The Smartest Guy in the Room

How To Get LeBron Vol. 2 – Lakers Edition

In the 31 years between 1980 and 2010, the Los Angeles Lakers played in the NBA Finals 16 times. Out of those 16 attempts, they captured the NBA Championship 10 times. That means in any given year for a little over 3 decades, that season had a 50% chance of ending with the Lakers winning the West and a 33% chance of a Lakers title. That’s a mind-blowing level of success and domination of a major sport. While the Celtics continue to hold a one championship edge over the Lakers, LA most certainly is THE team of the NBA.

Being a professional team based in Los Angeles obviously holds certain advantages, and the Lakers over the years have leveraged those to the max. They lured Wilt Chamberlain away from the Philadelphia Warriors, when he was fresh off of an NBA Championship in 1967. Wilt would lead them to a title in 1972, the franchise’s first since moving to LA.

3 years later, after Wilt and Jerry West had hung it up, the Lakers struck again. This time, it was finessing MVP and NBA Champion Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar) from Milwaukee. A few short years later, Kareem would team up with an outstanding young PG from Lansing, MI and the rest was history.

In the 1990s, the Lakers then set their sights on a young, world-shattering force by the name of Shaquille O’Neal. And once again, they were successful. It took some mind-numbingly-stupid negotiating from the Magic for it all to come to fruition, but when the dust cleared, the only guy to lead his team past Michael Jordan in the playoffs in the 90s was in Laker purple and gold.

Now here we are in 2018, and the Lakers are once again in position to do what they do, but with possibly the biggest fish yet on the hook: LeBron James.

The Lakers are currently sitting with $62 million in cap space (if they renounce the rights to all free agents) which is almost enough for them to sign two max free agents. To sign LeBron to the max would require a first year starting salary of million $35.3 and it would be $30.3 million in first year salary for Paul George, the free agent most often linked with the Lakers.

The crudest and most simple way for the Lakers to clear the requisite cap space to sign both PG and LeBron to the maximum they can command (outside of re-signing with their own teams) would be to use the stretch provision on Luol Deng’s contract. This would enable them to spread Deng’s remaining $36.6 million over 5 years. This would drop Deng’s cap number from about $18 million this year (and next) to $7.3 million, which would give the Lakers $72 million in cap space, enough to squeeze LeBron and PG in, with a little bit left over to add a rotation player.

However, that would leave a very misshapen roster. LeBron, PG, Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma and Josh Hart is a very interesting core of players, but it is extraordinarily young, and greatly lacking in size, even by modern NBA standards.

It’s always better to be more creative …. *GM hat, please*

So the first step of this process is that in order to maximize the next 5 years, the team has to understand what is core to its future. Right now there are 4 key, core players to the Lakers nucleus: Hart, Ball, Ingram, and Kuzma. The reality is that as you add two players with the skill of LeBron and Paul George, usage for these other 4 guys will decrease. For players like Kuzma and Hart, as their usage decreases, their efficiency should increase, as they are more or less role players who get their offense created by others. For guys like Ingram and Ball it’s a little bit stickier. There certainly is precedence for making 4 different ball dominant players work, especially with willing passers like Ball and LeBron, and if the Lakers didn’t have the albatross of Deng on the books, it would be worthwhile to watch these guys all together. However Deng’s contract is just a huge albatross that limits the vision I have for the Lakers roster, and while it may take parting with one of the 4 core players to do so, I think it may be worth it.

Now the popular trade I see out there on the rumor mill is for the Lakers to move Ingram and Deng for Kawhi Leonard. And if that deal is truly available, the Lakers should take it and run. But I’m skeptical that the Spurs will actually pull the trigger on a deal like that, and certainly not between now and mid-July, so I’m going to process this as if that is not an option.

So first step of course is adding Paul George and signing him to the max … A 4 year deal worth approximately $129 million ($30 million first year salary with 5 % raises). This drops the Lakers cap situation to $32 million in space.

The next move would be inking C DeAndre Jordan to a 4-year $86 million dollar deal. This requires a $20 million first year salary with 5% raises. Now many may think that this is a below market deal for Jordan, but when you scan the market it really is not. Because the NBAPA decided not to smooth out the cap and jumped it massively (which coincidentally is why the Warriors were able to add Kevin Durant to a 73 win team), teams gave out large contracts and acted as if the cap would rise exponentially each year. They were wrong. The cap has been flat the last few years and because of that, very few teams are working with cap space this offseason. Honestly, the only teams that I can see as viable options for Jordan, other than the Lakers are his current team, the Clippers and the Mavericks, the team he last left jilted at the altar. Neither seems likely to me. Joining the Lakers with a deal that gives him a $20+ million dollar salary until he is 32, staying in the city of LA, and being able to compete for a title seems like a good move for his future and his legacy. Honestly, whether the Lakers get LeBron or not, Jordan to the other LA team just seems logical.

Third, with $10 million, the Lakers should sign Avery Bradley to a 3 year 31.5 million dollar deal, with an opt-out after year 2. Now, that deal is a lot less than I think he anticipated getting a year or two ago. But the market, as I mentioned earlier, is very flat. Very few teams have in excess of $10 million in cap space, and those that do are either in a different stage of team formation, or are focused on bigger fish than Bradley. I suspect he will get some mid level exception offers, but the MLE will come in at under $10 million most likely. This deal beats those offers, and once again offers the opportunity to play for a contender.

Finally, with the remaining 4.4 million (2 million left over from initial cap space + 2.4 million in roster spot cap holds freed up by signing 3 players) the Lakers can sign a veteran big man like Ed Davis or Alex Len to help flesh things out.

Soooo … you may be confused …. The Lakers just used all of their cap space to sign free agents and none of them were LeBron … Yes, that is because when managing the cap, you have to understand how to leverage your assets … And so instead of trying to sign LeBron outright, the better move would be to execute a sign-and trade for someone already on the roster. And so the next move would be to trade Luol Deng + Lonzo Ball to the Cavs for LeBron in a sign-and trade.

With Deng at a cap value of $18 million and Ball at a cap value of $7.45 million, the Lakers would be sending out $25.5 million in salary. As a result, LeBron’s maximum first year salary would need to be $31.85 million (trades can only be 125% of the salary you send out + 100k) so he would be leaving about $3.5 million on the table. But if it was only about money he would just re-sign in CLE anyway. LeBron could ink a 2 year 65 million dollar deal with his customary opt-out option after year 1 to maximize his flexibility and earning power.

While some LA fans, especially LaVar Ball, would balk at having to give up Lonzo for LeBron, it makes sense as structuring things this way allows the Lakers to make the other transactions discussed and acquire all of these other players (who all have specific reasons for being acquired). Besides that, Ball would be at best the 4th banana in LA, and as a guy that thrives as a playmaker with the ball in his hands, he would not be as productive as most fans expect anyway. To fit around the core of guys that LA would be assembling, you would need a 3 and D guy to occupy the traditional point guard slot, and that is not exactly Lonzo’s game (strong defender but he is an atrocious shooter at this level so far).

For Cleveland, although they would have to eat Deng’s salary, they would be getting a young building block back in Ball for an out-the door LeBron, and he would be able to thrive in a low pressure environment. As I detailed in the Spurs post, Cleveland won’t have cap flexibility until 2020 anyway, so Deng does not really limit them in that respect. Aside from all of that, I would LOVE to see the interactions between Lavar and Dan Gilbert !

(Now, there is a version of this where the Lakers can keep Ball … If they stretched Deng’s contract (($10.7 million)), did not sign Bradley or Davis (($14 million)), either convinced Jordan to take $5 million less or signed Derrick Favors for $15 million (($5 million)) and convinced PG to take $2 million less (($2 million)) you could then try and convince LeBron to come for just under $32 million .. But with a downgrade at C, carrying Deng’s deal for 5 more seasons, no Bradley , and having to convince LeBron AND PG to take pay shaves ?? … Not worth it to keep Lonzo)

Now about putting this roster together … Because if you could not surmise, the construction of this roster was built with defeating the juggernaut that is the Warriors in mind. Here is the 8-man rotation:

C – Jordan/ Davis

F – LeBron/ Kuzma

F – Ingram/ (Kuzma)

G – George/ Hart

G – Bradley/(Hart)

That should be a truly terrifying roster for the Warriors. Jordan at C nullifies the “Hamptons Lineup” because you cannot get away with Draymond Green trying to keep Jordan off the glass. In addition to that, Jordan’s presence as a rim protector allows the other defenders to be more aggressive and truly clamp down on the perimeter. Jordan will thrive playing off of LeBron as well as he has similar passing chops to Jordan’s old running mate CP3. If LeBron could make Tristan Thompson look good as a pick and roll lob finisher, imagine him with DJ.

Playing LeBron as a point PF allows him to defend Draymond on defense, a player he can help off of as opposed to wasting energy guarding the Warriors better scorers. Offensively, he has a great mix in Ingram and George, of guys that can create their own shot without LeBron but are also dead eye shooters who can create space for LeBron’s drives and knock down open jumpers when he gets them those shots. Bradley is also a solid shooter, who excels at moving without the ball off of screens and and would do well playing off of LeBron.

With Ingram and George matching up with Klay Thompson and Durant, they would certainly make those guys work on both ends. And Bradley is the PERFECT defender for a guy like Steph Curry. He has elite quickness, a 6″11 wingspan and a bulldog mentality to really harass Steph.

Off the bench, Kuzma and Hart are excellent role players who are young and can mix and match well with the starters. Hart is a lot like Bradley and can play both guard spots and the wing, with strong defense and excellent long-range shooting. Kuzma can be asmall ball five and can play alongside/rest both Ingram and LeBron. And Ed Davis is an excellent back-up C that is another tremendous low post presence defensively and on the glass, but can also move better than the typical back-up C. He may potentially get a bigger deal than what the Lakers are offering, and if so they could grab Len, who is better offensively, but not as good on the defensive end. That’s a strong 8 man rotation, and the Lakers could just fill in the loose ends with veterans chasing rings or low-cost young players looking for a chance ala the Warriors.

If the Lakers follow my guidelines … They will be 2019 NBA Champions. For the record, I think LA is going to be the final destination for LeBron, but they may not follow this exact blueprint. …. They should though lol … Let me know what you think !

How To Get LeBron Vol. 1 – Spurs Edition

The San Antonio Spurs Dynasty is one of the most underappreciated dynasties in all of sports.

They have been a potent force for two decades now, navigating the many different iterations that the NBA has evolved into. The mystique of the Spurs resonates with their ability to evolve, both ahead of and contrary to the rest of the NBA.

In their first form, they dominated with the Twin Towers of David Robinson and Tim Duncan, but even between their two championship end points of 1999 and 2003, they had morphed from a dreadfully slow, low post oriented team that bludgeoned you to death with defense and size (1999) to a high post, oriented team, that was still stout defensively, but was also much more ruthless and precise in their offensive efficiency. The personnel shifted between those eras as well … Avery Johnson, Mario Elie and Sean Elliot gave way to Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli, Bruce Bowen and Stephen Jackson as the Spurs grew into a dual-sided monster.

The Spurs would win two more titles in 2005 and 2007, as Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli continued their ascendance, and the NBA became a league dominated by pick and roll basketball (Jerry Sloan and Mike D’Antoni never get the credit they deserve). The Spurs adapted to the changing tides, but never abandoned their defensive stronghold and the ability to play through Duncan.

The last championship Spurs team was very different than the previous teams. They were still a very good defensive team of course, anchored by an ageless Duncan and the burgeoning star that was Kawhi Leonard, but the most salient aspect of that team was it’s passing and spacing. They were lethal, and they were one of the forerunners of the modern day NBA.

The architect of all of these Spurs teams was the man I consider the greatest coach of all-time, Greg Poppovich. He is the person who has seamlessly interwoven all of these parts, and elicited buy-in from a host of stars and otherwise malcontents over the years. He intends to get a meeting with LeBron, and I think he will be successful. And he can offer LeBron James something that the players he’s often compared to enjoyed, but that he’s never truly had: elite coaching (no disrespect to Erik Spoelstra).

But how, you may ask, can the Spurs get LeBron? Look at their cap: (courtesy of Spotrac.com). Even if they renounce all of their restricted and un-restricted free agents, they are only about 600k under the cap. That’s about 30 million short of what they need.

However, they also have two players with player options for 2018/2019 in Rudy Gay ($8.8 million) and Danny Green ($10 million). They have a third player in Pau Gasol ($16 million) who is under contract this season, but only has about $6.9 million of his 16 million guaranteed for the 2019/2020 season. What does all of this mean ? It means the Spurs have assets and options.

The easiest route for LeBron to get to San Antonio would be for Rudy Gay and Danny Green to both opt out of their contracts. If that happened, all San Antonio would need to do is move Pau Gasol + a first round pick to a team that has cap space and they would have 35 million in cap space to make the magic happen … That’s more than enough. Or even if Gay opted-in and Green opted out, they would be set, as moving Gasol + Green off the books would open up 26 million in cap space. That would be a pay cut for LeBron, but when you factor in that Texas has no state income tax, it would only be a pay cut of a couple million dollars … He’s taken bigger pay shaves than that in the past.

However, the downside to using this method to sign LeBron outright is that San Antonio would lose the rights to go over the cap to re-sign their free agents, as they would need to be renounced. The Spurs would also lost the ability to use their mid-level-exception to fill out the roster as well, as all exceptions have to be renounced when a team goes under the cap. It makes more sense to try and trade for a re-signed LeBron if you want to maintain flexibility … However you would need to be creative and involve a 3rd team as it is unlikely that Cleveland would be eager to help out the team they are losing LeBron to … without some incentives …. Creativity is not an issue for me *puts GM hat on*:

A 3 way trade that make sense:

Spurs get: LeBron James

Clippers get: Danny Green + Pau Gasol

Cavs get: Danilo Gallinari + 2019 Spurs first round pick (lottery protected) + 2019 Clippers first round pick (lottery protected)

Why for Cavs: Getting two first round picks + a solid if injury prone wing in Gallinari is about the best haul they could hope to expect if LeBron is actually leaving. Compare that with what the Clippers got for an out-the-door Chris Paul and this is much, much better. The Cavs will not have any cap space until the summer of 2020 with or without Gallinari, so he does not harm their flexibility at all. The Clippers pick in this deal would not likely come to Cleveland until 2020 (more on that later) but that still works. Having two first round picks (their own + these) in each of 2019 and 2020 can really help jump-start the rebuild post-LeBron.

Why for Clippers: This is all about the Summer of 2019. Look at their cap for 2019 … very bare! By shedding Gallinari and taking on Green’s expiring deal, and Gasol’s partially guaranteed 2020 deal, they could have over $80 million dollars of cap space available, possibly even past $90 million depending on how much the cap goes up and what they do with Lou Williams. That’s enough room for 3 max free agents ! The potential free agent haul in 2019 looks a lot better than what will be out there this summer, and this move maximizes their potential haul. What’s more is that they likely will be so bad in 2019, that their first round pick won’t convey until 2020 anyway, so they could be in position to add 3 max players to their two picks from this year and another high lottery pick next year. That is how you completely reshape a roster.

Why for Spurs: LeBron James, duh. The Spurs would be unbelievable. For sign-and trade purposes they could do a 2 year 60 million dollar deal, with an opt-out after year one for LeBron (he prioritizes flexibility) and it would set the Spurs up nicely. Because it is a sign-and trade, the Spurs could keep all of their free agent player rights and could bring back whatever combination of Tony Parker, Kyle Anderson, Brynn Forbes and Davis Bertans they want to fill the roster. They also would still have the mid-level exception at their disposal, which would enable them to bring in a big-man like Dwayne Dedmon to fill out the roster as well. Forbes, Bertans and Parker should all be very cheap to bring back. You likely would have to let Anderson walk, as the luxury tax apron would create a hard cap due to sign and trade (for more information check this salary cap FAQ … basically once they do a sign-and trade, they have a hard cap they cannot exceed), and some team would likely offer him more than they could afford to match. Still, consider this line-up:

F – Aldridge/ Dedmon / Laveurgne

F – LeBron/ 2018 first round pick / Bertans

F – Leonard/ Gay/ Paul

G – Mills/ Ginobli / Forbes

G – Murray/ Parker/ White

There are question marks there but that is a scary team … Kawhi’s health would be a large question mark, but I’m sure that at some point he will return to the court. Gay gives you an excellent back-up to both forward positions and Dedmon give you an excellent rim protector that can play both with and in place of Aldridge.

In Leonard and Murray, the Spurs would have two of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA, which would allow LeBron to thrive in a help defender role. There is also plenty of shooting to surround the new big 3 in San Antonio, with Forbes and Mills and more importantly an architect in Greg Poppovich who can really allow LeBron’s greatest gift, as a passer, to flourish.

If LeBron really wants to win a few more titles, play with great talent, and play under legendary tutelage, this is the move. I think it is more than doable …. and unlike several other NBA franchises, I think the Spurs are smart and creative enough to make something like this happen as well.

Comments? Let me know !

DETROIT LIONS DRAFT OVERVIEW- #82 OVERALL TRACEY WALKER

This pick was the first true head scratcher of the day for Bob Quinn and company, in my opinion. Though I may have had some reservations about passing up on a pass rusher with the Ragnow pick, and passing up on Guice with the Johnson pick, I did see Ragnow and Johnson as players who filled roster needs for the Lions. This one did not fit the bill.

Glover Quin has a brand new contract. Quandre Diggs shined in his first tour of duty at FS at the end of last year. Matt Patricia of course is known for using 3 safeties a lot in his time at New England, but even there the Lions are covered. They re-signed Tavon Wilson, who was the opening day starter last year and has experience in Patricia’s scheme from his time in New England. And then finally there is Miles Killebrew, the third year holdover from Quinn’s first draft. It seemed like the 2 deep was set, and if they were going to go with 5 safeties, the 5th was going to be a special teams maven that they picked up as an UDFA to compete with Charles Washington and other safety-type players currently on the 90-man roster.

However, when you use a 3rd round pick on a player, you are intimating that you expect that player to contribute early, and become a starter, sooner than later. And perhaps that is the case here. Quinn and company were certainly very excited about the pick.

Film time:

(I dislike using highlight film because it’s obviously very difficult to evaluate players when looking at their best plays and leaving out their issues. I can tell more about a player from his mistakes than his highlights.)
There’s some very intriguing things to like about Walker. First is his speed. He ran a 4.51 at the combine which is a great time for a safety. More importantly, that speed translates to the film. Walker showcases that speed in ranging over the top to make plays on the ball, and when coming down to make stops in the running game. He profiles as a free safety, with his body type and fluidity, but he is definitely physical enough to make plays in the running game. And make receivers think twice as well. ULL used Tracy in a variety roles: as a hang defender in the box, as a deep zone defender, or in man-to-man. Having such a versatile safety is important to a Patricia-led defense and I can see some Patrick Chung in his tape. I also like that Walker knows how to make plays on the ball. He had 19 PBUs and 8 INTs in his 4 years at ULL and was a steady and solid contributor from his freshman year until now.

My major concerns are about how Walker will translate. It’s a big jump from ULL to the NFL and the caliber of athletes that Walker will face are on another level. Many players have made the transition from as small or smaller conferences of course, but usually they have outstanding traits or dominant production that put you at ease. While his production was solid and consistent, he was far from dominant at ULL. While he has great speed and long, 34 inch arms that should aid him well in coverage, the rest of his traits are average. Agility and explosion are better determinants of coverage ability, especially for a safety, than pure deep speed and nothing he showcased on the tape or at the combine suggests that he has plus attributes in those categories to contribute. Against Ole Miss he got COOKED on this play.

At the East-Shrine Bowl week, he was brought in for praise from many different publications, and even Quinn said that it was that week of practice that really intrigued him about Walker. But in the game he was very quiet. Now being that he plays a role where quiet is not a bad thing, I’m not using that to damn him, but it would have been nice to see some translation from the practice hype in the game. I am actually a bit intrigued at the idea of using Walker as a press corner, rather than as a safety because he could use his physicality, length and speed to really be a problem. See here how he uses his physicality to get “handsy”. As a safety, the refs are calling that flag all day for defensive holding. But as a press corner that is attacking, he may be able to get away with it. Maybe that will be something that they experiment with if Walker does not break through at safety. Then again, maybe not.

In short, Walker has some of the physical attributes necessary to make this pick a success. I think it was reach, although some reports had other teams ready to take Walker in the 3rd, so I don’t know. The Lions passed on Arden Key, and could have easily moved up for Sam Hubbard or Rasheem Green in the 3rd, three players who could have helped fix the woeful Lions pass rush. Instead they took a safety that requires some projection. I don’t anticipate Walker making a huge dent this year on defense unless Diggs is a poor fit in Patricia’s scheme at S or they move him to nickel. I could see Walker potentially beating out Killebrew as the 4th safety, and them using Killebrew as a Dime (or full-time) LB. But likely Walker will make his impact on Special Teams this year as a gunner and a jammer on the punt return/coverage units as they develop him to compete for a starting role in 2019 and on.

I give this pick a C-. Would have been happy with him in the 5th round, but 3rd round is too high for someone who requires that much projection, especially when you are taking him at one of the Lions deeper positions and passing on a huge need. I’m tempted to give this a D but I think Walker actually is an NFL caliber athlete and safety is important in Patricia’s scheme so clearly he saw some important things in Walker’s profile.

Detroit Lions Draft Overview – #43 Overall Kerryon Johnson

So I can admit when I have jumped the gun. And I may have jumped the gun in my initial “mild displeasure” over the Lions selection of Mr. Kerryon Johnson.

It’s not that I thought Kerryon was a bad player. I knew he was good. He led the SEC in yards and touchdowns and was named the Conference Offensive Player of the Year. You don’t do that without being good at football.

But I was irritated that the Lions used a premium pick on a non-premium position (RB is the easiest position to fill on offense) , and then even at that passed on superior talents at the position … like Derrius Guice.

Unfortunately, due to time constraints, I was unable to do my usual thorough analysis pre-Draft. So a lot of my thoughts about Lions picks were based on superficial analysis and memory of players from watching them live. Pre- draft, I ranked the RBs as so:

Saquon Barkley (drafted #2 overall)
Derrius Guice (drafted #59 overall)
Sony Michel (drafted #31 overall)
Nick Chubb (drafted #35 overall)
Ronald Jones (drafted #53 overall)
KERRYON JOHNSON
Rashad Penny (drafted #27 overall)

I may still be mad at passing on Guice after I look at his film in-depth. But after taking a deeper dive on Kerryon, I saw a lot of things that I may have missed live. And they make me feel a whole lot better about this pick. ( Also, so does this)

So Kerryon. He has nice size for the position at 6’0 and about 215. His combine agility numbers were so-so, but he had outstanding explosion numbers. A 40 inch vertical and a 10’6″ broad jump are outstanding and confirm the explosion you see on tape.

Speaking of tape:

So the first thing you notice about Kerryon is his running style. It is very patient and methodical and has drawn a lot of similarities to LeVeon Bell’s. While that is certainly the top end of the spectrum for Johnson, like Bell he is very adept at waiting for his blockers to get in position before planting his foot and exploding into the hole. His feel for running is very evident as he varies his approach based on what the defense is showing him. Sometime he will press one hole, waiting for defenders to over pursue, before darting back into the hole he just created. Other times, he will explode north and south as soon as he identifies the crease. He has great balance and very good power through the hole and is able to finish through contact, drive his legs and fall forward the majority of the time. Occasionally, he doesn’t display the greatest vision, and misses holes (had a cutback for the TD here) but this is not a regular occurrence.

By no means is Kerryon a burner, in fact raw speed is probably his biggest flaw as a back. But he is as complete as it gets in the other much, more important dimensions. He is a more than capable pass catcher out of the backfield, even though his route running could use some work. He’s not an open space savant (like his teammate Ryan Davis #23, goodness gracious that guy is terrifying in space), but he can get the job done and get positive yards when put in that scenario.

Kerryon is also going to play and play a lot because in terms of pass protection, he’s one of the best I’ve seen at the college level, on par with Zeke Elliot and Mike Hart. He shows time and time again that he is an asset, and stonewalls linebackers and defensive backs alike. His technique is excellent, his vision to identify blitzers is as well and he just has a willingness to block that is just not found in a lot of running backs.

That to me speaks to his competitiveness. Kerryon is a physical and thumping runner, and he likes to mix it up, even when he doesn’t have the ball. Despite him not testing off the charts in agility or speed , he has flashes where he showcases some long speed and where he makes people miss in space. He also has these dynamic, play maker runs that are just a mixture of explosiveness, toughness and it-factor. Let me also be clear … he was doing all of the things I’m showing you against 2 of the top 3 defenses in college football, Georgia and Alabama, whom both played in the NCAA Championship game … Auburn beat both as well.

I am very intrigued as to what this pick means for the Lions this season. They seemed poised to go into the year with the Thunder/Lightning pairing of LaGarrette Blount and Ameer Abdullah, mixing in Theo Reddick as a 3rd down specialist. However, Kerryon is a wild card as he can contribute in both the run and pass game in multiple ways.

I’m also interested in seeing if the additions of Blount and Johnson means the Lions are looking to install a run scheme that is more zone oriented. It would make sense as our offensive line is wickedly athletic at this point and both Blount and Johnson’s running styles seem more conducive to zone rather than gap blocking.

After thinking things over, I get the pick a lot better. After this season, it’s likely that neither Abudullah or Blount will be here, and Riddick is no guarantee himself unless he can show improved skills running the ball. Kerryon is a great foundational piece as a do-it-all back who can play every down, and has the toughness and athletic ability to have success. Perhaps next season, they add the speedy, game breaking complement to Johnson to really open up this offense. But I appreciate Mr. Johnson and I’m looking forward to what he will bring to us this season.

I give this pick a B+.

Detroit Lions Draft Overview – #20 Overall Frank Ragnow

I’m back !!!!!

After a lengthy hiatus I have been re-energized by my favorite event of the year – The NFL Draft !

I have some mixed feelings about this Draft for the Lions, but I will get into that, as well as my overall feelings about this franchise and the direction it is headed in a later post. On one hand, I think with the possible exception of one pick that I still need to do some research on, the Lions drafted good players, right around their appropriate value level, and in some cases got steals. I think they added some really good, safe pieces that will fortify the roster. My beef is based more so on the players they passed up, a couple of whom I predict we will strongly, strongly regret passing up. But that too, I will expound up another time.

Based on Bob Quinn’s post draft-interview and some clues from Matt Patricia about how the defensive scheme will look, I understand the direction the Lions are moving in … I just don’t understand why, based on recent history in the Super Bowl we would choose to construct our roster in that way. However, as I said , all of that is for a later post … Let’s dig into the here and the now – Frank Ragnow, C Arkansas:

Usually Draft Breakdown has a better mix of 2016 and 2017 film, but I’m guessing Frank’s injury played a role in the lack of options they had for this past season. If you check their site, they have 2 other films you can check out of Ragnow, but both are from 2016. I really wish they had the Alabama film, as that was film of him at guard, and scouts say that he absolutely mauled that front, which is a good test since most of Alabama’s defensive line is going to be in the NFL.

The first thing that stands out to me about Frank is how quickly he explodes out of his stance. He does so under control and with his hands ready to punch. That is a good thing … because the second thing that stood out to me was that when he does punch and gets a hold of you, that’s the end of you doing anything on that play. Frank has a ton of raw strength and power, and he has long arms so when he executes a play perfectly, it’s all she wrote. In addition to all of this , Frank moves like a much smaller man. His pulls from the C position were excellent in terms of his movement skills (more on his pulling later) and he was a really effective combo blocker, clobbering cats at the line of scrimmage and then peeling off to the second level.

His movement skills also translate in pass pro. His short set is excellent and his feet looked good and provided a wide base and anchor that could withstand the power interior DTs exerted. He was also good at scanning the line of scrimmage and identifying blitzers to pick-up. Of course, there are some aspects of playing C, that watching film you will never be able to pick up, like who makes/adjusts the line calls but my money is on it being him and not the QB. A C with a strong grasp on the mental side of the game is as invaluable to an offense as a Mike LB is to setting up the front seven. In any event, when he puts it all together, the strength , the explosion and the movement skills look like an All-Pro C and that is what I think his ceiling is. I also think he would be great as a G (wish I had the Bama film to confirm).

Where Frank struggled was mostly in technique things. And by struggle I mean Frank Ragnow in 2016 not in 2017 as I saw only glimpses of some of these same issues in the 2017 film. Several times in that 2016 film though, while Frank exploded out of his stance, he did so and immediately stood up. In doing so, he completely took himself out of the leverage battle. He also did a lot of catching instead of attacking and let players get their hands inside, a big no-no for offensive linemen. The crazy thing is that against most of the linemen Auburn had, Frank was so powerful and had such a good anchor, that even with bad leverage, he was fine. However, Montravius Adams (#1, 2017 3rd round pick of the Green Bay Packers) showed Frank what will happen if he stands up against NFL linemen a few times. IT WAS NOT PRETTY. Thankfully, even in that game, when his technique was good, he handled Adams pretty well. And like I said before, there were only rare occasions of that in the 2017 film I saw. Montravius is in the division too, so new and improved Frank can get some revenge !!!

Another slight issue is that Frank often pulled and could not identify someone to hit. Or he would pull so fast and move so quickly, he would make his block more difficult than it needed to be. This will easily be corrected with coaching and, is something that happened more in 2016 than it did in 2017. Frank was an NFL player in 2016, but the development he had between those seasons was big time, in terms of consistency of technique. That’s why I think at worst he will be a solid starter for us either at C or G next to Graham Glasgow. But I think that he will likely become a Pro-Bowl caliber G and solidify our OL for the forseeable future.

Some fans were upset with the selection of an interior OL with our first round pick. I was not in that group, because I knew just how good Frank is, I just had a preference for a couple of other players. Pro Football Focus is effusive in their praise for Frank and he’s broken their scale at how good he’s been the last two years by their grading. The monster contract that Andrew Norwell just pulled in free agency shows you how guards are becoming much more coveted in value in the NFL. No longer can they just be one-dimensional maulers. They need to be scheme diverse and capable pass protectors as well, as the caliber of DT’s evolves, and teams begin using defensive ends as interior rushers in their sub packages.

I personally would have preferred Isaiah Wynn over Frank as I think that Wynn is a little bit better at G and can also play LT if Decker gets hurt again, which is a truly valuable trait to have. Frank is an interior OL only (but a damn good one). Also, an even higher priority preference would have been to address our woeful pass rush in the first round as opposed to drafting an interior OL. One of the major strengths of this draft class was the interior offensive linemen. You could have gotten a starter in the 2nd or 3rd round of the Draft (not Frank or Wynn though). Meanwhile, Harold Landry, the best pure pass rusher in the draft (yes, even better than Bradley Chubb) was sitting there at pick #20. I think we will regret passing on him for years to come.

However, outside of moving up to get Quentin Nelson and my slight preference for Wynn, the Lions could not have done a better job of shoring up the interior offensive line than grabbing Frank at pick 20. Bengals fans were PISSED, because they thought they were getting him at 21. I don’t blame them.

Frank Ragnow, happy to have you !

Grade for Frank Ragnow pick: A-

Agree or disagree ? Hit my comments section !

205th Overall – Jeremiah Ledbetter

Jeremiah Ledbetter is a guy that must have caught Bob Quinn and his staff’s eye at the combine. Because the tape I saw was not all that impressive. Still he has the physical profile to fulfill a need as the base end in our scheme (5 technique that plays just outside the edge of the tackle and inside the tight end). Video ? Video.

Positives. Well he has violent and heavy hands which is always important to defensive line play. There were times on film he really flashed those hands and his impressive arm length (35 inches), and that will be important because the base end in our system needs to be able to set the edge while two-gapping (responsible for both the gaps on either side of the offensive tackle.) This is not an easy task, and so it requires big, mean individuals, with long arms and vicious hands. I can say that Ledbetter fits that profile.

Negatives ? Well he moved inside for Arkansas this year .. and his stats were fairly solid so it must have been a good move .. But in the film above I felt he looked a lot better at DE. At DT, he was mostly neutral – he did not win a lot or lose a lot. But when he did lose it was UGLY. OL from Auburn, TAMU and Missouri took him for a RIDE at times. While that’s bad when it happens to linebackers, it is inexcusable to happen to your interior defensive linemen. He is listed as a DT, but if you notice in my positives I refer to him solely as a DE. He just is too small to be a nose tackle and not explosive enough to be a 3-tech tackle for us inside. He got killed by double teams which is a little scary because the base end in our scheme is designed to eat double teams from the tackle and the TE without losing ground and I’m not sure if he can handle that.

Overall, I’m not expecting a ton from a pick this late. The film is meh, but the measurables point to a potentially useful rotation player. We have quite a few guys on the roster that can fit this profile however, so I’m wondering if this pick may have been better served getting a pass rusher (you know since we were 30th in sacks last season) or grabbing a power RB. So I’ll give it a C-.

165th Overall – Jamal Agnew

This one will be brief as I scoured the Internet and could not find any real film on Mr. Agnew. The closest I could find is this highlight film. Highlight films are not the best for evaluating a player as, naturally, it only shows a player at his best. However, I suppose it is better than nothing …..

Positives? Well he does look like his 4.34 40 at the combine is legit. He’s fast, twitchy and explosive. It also looks like he is willing to compete at the catch point. His college production ( 11 PBUs, 2 INTs in 2016 and 11 career INTs) backs up that assertion as well. He looks to have decent return skills and some potential use as a gunner due to his speed.

Negatives? Well he is TINY. Short w/ short arms is a bad combo. He obviously will have to play slot at this level. There is none of this on the highlights, but multiple evaluators who have seen his film, say he struggles in the trail position on routes. They also say he can struggle making tackles. To me, that is a red flag, and when combined with a guy who lacks size makes me concerned that he could be a special teams only player.

Honestly, I don’t think Agnew makes our 53- man roster. I don’t have a lot to base that on but Slay, Lawson, Tabor and Hayden are pretty much guaranteed. He would have to beat out Quandre Diggs, and Johnson Bademosi just to make the 53 and that could happen, but it probably won’t. I expect Agnew to end up on the Practice Squad for this year at least unless he proves to be too dynamic a return man in training camp to keep off the roster.

I really can’t fairly grade this. My gut tells me it’s a D pick, undersized guy that, won’t make roster, and won’t contribute. But I have no film to base that off and this is a guy that while small and at a smaller school, does at least have great speed and great college production. I guess I will give it a D+.

You could probably talk me into a C- though ……

My Book of Rhymes

Literally by mistake today … I listened to one of my old, unfinished freestyles.

I had planned on making a collection of them and titling them “The Talented 10th”.

It was an ode to the flawed but interesting ideology espoused (but not created) by the great historical (Alpha) figure W.E.B DuBois.

I am probably not going to finish that project ever, (for a lot of reasons) so I figured I would share one of them with you all.

It’s pretty old (circa 2014) so it’s a little bit dated, but I think I still like it. I paid for the studio time so I figured that I might as well upload it and let other people hear it, right ?

So, listen:

WARNING

127th Overall – Michael Roberts

The irony/riddle/enigma of the Lions selection of Michael Roberts is the eerie similarity to Brandon Pettigrew, but for the EXACT opposite reason that the casual Lions fan would think. Also, I expect Roberts to be a case study in the role of fan expectations in perceived performance.

…. Also, former Toledo RB Kareem Hunt would have been a GREAT selection, but went to the Kansas City Chiefs in the 3rd round, 1 pick after our original 3rd round slot (we traded back for Golladay) …. Just saying …. *sigh*

So Draft Breakdown only has the one video on their site, and my rule usually is to at least watch 3 games of film to form an opinion on a player. That being said, I have seen Roberts live before, and his tape is very consistent with what other “draft experts” have said, so I’m confident in my evaluation.

First the positives. For a converted basketball player, he is a very natural pass catcher, with soft (and HUGE) hands, and a natural ability to just find areas to get open. Also, while he does not create much separation, his incredible size allows him to still be a target for his QB. I think he will greatly aid the Lions in the Red Zone as a big target that can draw attention and provide an outlet for Stafford. This was a role that Anquan Boldin gamely filled for us last season and with his return still up in the air, Roberts provides an immediate and long term option to fill this void.

Now for the negatives. Much like with Pettigrew, many observers very lazily assume that Roberts is a great run blocker, because of his great size for the position. However, much like in Pettigrew’s case, they would be wrong. Pettigrew fluctuated between being a poor and average blocker during his time with the Lions. I would not categorize Roberts as a poor run blocker, but it certainly is not a strength. He just does not fire off the ball with the tenacity or aggressiveness that you would think he would based on his size. He can probably handle blocking linebackers or safeties on the second level, but if you are asking him to seal the edge or block down on a defensive lineman, you are asking for trouble.

Overall Roberts is a carbon copy of Pettigrew. They are both big, athletic TE’s that lack explosion , but still are good at getting open. People often forget that at the peak of Pettigrew’s career he was a 75 catch – 750 yard – 5 TD TE for a few seasons. His production as a pass catcher is wildly underrated by Lions fans, likely because of his draft slot. While I’m not sure if Roberts will post stat lines as good as those, he certainly could, and nonetheless will be a strong addition to the passing game. And I predict he will be much more appreciated than Pettigrew ever was. However, those thinking he will be a positive in the run game will be sadly mistaken. I would actually settle for him being an average run/pass blocker.

I give this selection a B. I would have preferred the pick of George Kittle, a guy with ELITE run blocking that would really help the Lions run game go to the next level, while also being a solid receiving option. That selection would have gotten an A+ from me. Still Roberts is a decent pick, that gives us a nice blend of TEs. So while there were better options on the board, Roberts was a decent pick (seems to be Quinn’s signature).

124th overall – Jalen Reeves- Maybin

Jalen … is an interesting film to evaluate. Let me just say he certainly stands out on the field. Unfortunately, that is both in a positive and a negative context. But you cannot miss him on the field, as he FLYS around.

First, as always, the positives. Jalen is a converted safety and as you would imagine, his speed is definitely an asset. His 40 time of 4.68 doesn’t do it justice , he is a blur out there. He can run sideline to sideline and can keep players from getting to the edge. It also serves him well in coverage, whether man or zone. He has boundless energy and he’s always coming. When he hits you, you feel it. He blew up several players/plays on his film. He’s also really excellent against screens to his side (more on that later), something I owe to his ability to shed (getting blockers off of him). For an undersized guy, he is pretty adept at shedding blockers and getting to the play.

Now, the negatives. As I will discuss more when I discuss the Lions first round pick, the two most important traits that I look for in a linebacker are 1. Can he diagnose the play in front of him (instincts) and 2. Can he tackle ? I feel like those are critical, because really every other linebacker attribute is useless if you cant find a play and then end the play. In terms of instincts, Jalen could use some work. I get that, being he was a safety first, but sometimes he is taken so far out of the play by not recognizing what is going on in front of him. Now a lot of times, he can recover and get back into the play with his speed, but it usually leaves him off balance when he arrives …. which leads into #2. While his instincts need work, his tackling needs a COMPLETE REBUILD. Simply put he is just an awful tackler. His technique is bad, as he often dips his head and fails to wrap up. He just throws his body into people which while sometimes causes big hits, more often causes them to bounce off of him and get more yards. Compounding that, he often plays wildly out of control. He overruns plays badly and got juked completely out of his cleats more than a few times. It’s one thing when Baker Mayfield does it to you and another when a non-descript running back from Bowling Green does it to you. Also, while he does shed well, he often has to give up ground to do so, meaning he is ceding 3-4 yards to the ball carrier in the process. And when blockers do get locked on to him, they can take him for a long ride down the field due to his size. I don’t blame that last part so much on him, as I do on Tennessee’s scheme. With a guy like him, your D-Line needs to occupy linemen. He had to deal with them on a regular basis.

So all this considered, I really did not like this pick at first. Especially when Jarrad Davis does a lot of the same things Jalen does, but with less downside.

However, as I think of Teryl Austin, and what he likes to do scheme-wise, I begin to see some upside to this pick. We used a lot of 3 and 4 safety sets last year in their nickel and dime packages (out of necessity because both our corners and linebackers were terrible) and I think that Teryl may want to recreate that, except with chess pieces better equipped for the job.

I think they will use him a lot in the nickel. Now, and hear me out, that seems very unconventional when you consider we just drafted two corners and signed DJ Hayden (TO A FIVE MILLION/YR CONTRACT – BLEH !) so why would we use a LB in that role ?

Well it would only be against certain looks and against certain packages, but out in space a lot of the negatives in Jalen’s game are erased. He can play outside in , and he won’t have to deal with being engulfed by linemen. He’s more of an oversized safety, than an undersized LB and I think in that role he can thrive. Of course they will likely also be grooming him to be a nickel LB, so they can throw him and Davis out there and we never have to see Tahir Whitehead on 3rd down again. But a big nickel package with him covering a flex TE or a RB or a jumbo receiver could be a great way to use Jalen’s best skills while minimizing his weaknesses. That’s a whole lot of projecting, but I’m trying to be optimistic here !

So overall, Maybin-Reeves is a twitchy, fast linebacker, that struggles with instincts and tackling, and also just had a major shoulder injury. His selection means the Miles Killibrew nickel experiment is probably over, and he will focus on SS full-time. I’m also very intrigued/scared at the prospect of Jalen on Special Teams as he will fly down the field, but also likely miss a ton of tackles until his technique improves. Strangely though, he seemed to tackle better in space than in a booth, so hopefully that translates to ST as well.

On face value, I would give this pick a D …. But because I have faith in Teryl Austin I will upgrade it to a C-. With glaring holes at both base end and 3-tech, I would have liked to see us go in that direction, rather than taking a project LB with health concerns. But I think Austin will find a useful way to deploy Jalen when it is all said and done.

What do you think ? Share in the comments !