GM Hat: Lakeshow

Much is being made over the “predicament” the Lakers find themselves in, regarding how they will construct a team around LeBron James, and the newly acquired Anthony Davis (EDIT: Not anymore !). Thanks to an “accounting error” made by the front office, the Lakers now find themselves in a cap space bind. They now find themselves with only $27 million dollars (approx.) in cap space, and that number falls down to $23 million dollars (approx.) if Davis chooses to exercise his trade kicker (according to reports it appears that will be the case.) (EDIT: Not so fast my friend! ). I think a lot of the reporting, both on the major networks and online has been pretty shoddy about this because it ignores some key points:

  1. Hindsight is always 20:20 … Those saying the Lakers should have waited until AFTER they signed a free agent to trade for AD are ignoring that the Pelicans could have traded him to another team at any time. Risking having Davis, just to have the CHANCE to add a 3rd star via FA is putting the cart miles and miles ahead of the horse. Davis is much better than any realistic free agent the Lakers could acquire. Now, after the fact, it seems like a foregone conclusion that AD would become a Laker, but the Celtics and Knicks could have foiled that plan at any time.
  2. The Lakers technically can still use their cap space to sign a max FA before acquring AD. July 6th is the first day the trades can be completed in the new NBA league year AND it is the first day that free agents can sign with new/current teams. The trick here is the Lakers have to convince one of the marquee MAX free agents to sign with them between June 30 and July 5. Then they would need to sign that player and THEN complete the agreed-upon trade for AD using the 125% trade rule. (I ran the numbers, they are good). The first part of that process may prove difficult to accomplish, with said players taking multiple visits and needing time to process their decision. So not impossible, but unlikely.
  3. If AD waives his trade kicker and the Lakers were able to move Isaac Bonga, Mo Wagner and Jermerrio Jones, they would have about 30 million dollars in cap space. While not the 32.7 million dollar max slot, they could offer 4 years and about 132 million, which is just shy of the 140 million other non-Bird right teams could offer (Bird-right teams can offer an extra year and 50 million dollars, or another year and 80 million dollars with the super-max eligible players). EDIT: This just happened lol
  4. All of the scenarios with the cap are based on it being at the projected 109 million. If it comes in at 111 or 112 million, then in scenario 3, the Lakers would be at a max slot (or very, very close to it).

So there are 3 basic scenarios the Lakers have:

Scenario 1: Maximize the Window – give the Lakers a deep and versatile team capable of playing multiple styles and fully augmenting LeBron’s capabailities as he heads into the twilight of his career. How ? Well follow along with me …

The Lakers books currently look like this (shoutout to Spotrac.com):

That comes out to about $71.4 mil + the $8.1 mil roster charge the Lakers have for 9 unfilled roster spots (you have an approx 900k cap hold for every spot under 12 on your roster). With an $79.5 mil cap hit and a projected 109 million cap, that gives the Lakers $29.5 mil of cap space. I keep hearing people say 32 million and I’m not sure exactly where that number is coming from … Could be a cap rule/tweak that I’m not aware of … But 29.5 million is more than enough …. (Just mentally add another 2.5 million once the books come out and the Lakers are sitting with 32.)

The first order of business would be to go and get a starting PG. Playing on this roster, you will need a PG with a particular set of skills. Because of LeBron James, playmaking is less of a premium from your PG, but 3 point shooting and defense are critical. Your PG should still be a capable secondary or tertiary playmaker, so Bron does not have to create everythng for everyone, but the first two skills are paramount. Two PGs who fit this cleanly are Patrick Beverly and Darren Collison. While Beverly is already in LA as a member of the Clippers, I get the notion that he is going to be pursued stongly by the Mavericks, and there are reports that they see each other as a perfect match (he can play off Luka in a similar manner). I see Collison as an even better fit. They are similar in their defensive acumen, but Collison is a superior 3 point shooter and playmaker. He’s shot over 40% from 3 in multiple seasons, and has averaged in the 5-6 assts range comfortably. What’s more is that Collison is an LA kid, who went to UCLA, and I could see him returning home to help win a title. We offer Collison a 3 year deal worth $31.5 million. Why ? This is slightly more than teams offering the Mid-Level Exception can offer. They can only do 3 year deals starting at 9.2 million which come out to 3 years and 29 million. I think that exception will be the top of his market and so offering a deal slightly higher than this will secure him. We may have some competition from Indiana but rumor is they are targeting Ricky Rubio, and after flirting with getting Mike Conley + wanting to increase miutes for last year’s first round pick Aaron Holiday (Rubio’s size allows them to play together) , I think they will be content to let Collison move on. Start him at 10 million dollars with the CBA prescribed 5% raises and you get your 3 year $30 million dollar deal.

$29.5 million dollars – $10 million dollars + 900k for freed up roster spot cap hold = $20.4 million dollars left.

Now to shore up the backcourt. Well, thanks to a shrewd move last trade deadline, the Lakers already have a SG on the roster that is a solid defender and knocks down 3 pointers at a high clip. Reggie Bullock was second in the NBA in 3 point shooing in 2017-2018, and that kind of shooting is invaluable in the construction of this roster. Furthermore, because the Lakers own Bullock’s bird rights, that gives them even more flexibility in the construction of the roster. They can agree to a contract with him and not have to actually sign the contract until they sign everyone else, and go over the cap to do so. Thus, even if he signs for much more than that, he will only count his cap hold (4.75 million) while the Lakers are putting things together. In order to maximize the Lakers cap flexibility + I’m going to have the Lakers sign him to a 4 year deal worth 42.1 million dollars, with de-escalating salaries (8% since he is a Bird year player), and a mutual team/player option for that 4th year. So he gets a first year salary of 12 million, second year salary of 11.04 million, a third year salary of 10.08 million, and the option year salary of $9.02 million. That way, the Lakers can get out of the deal if the Bron era is done and they begin rebuilding around AD, and Bullock can hit the market at 31 for his last big deal if he flourishes.

20.4 million dollars left – 4.75 million dollars + 900k for freed up roster spot = 16.55 million dollars left.

Now with your starting backcourt set, lets look to shore up the front court. While Kuzma is a young ascending player, I view him more as a super 6th man, than a great starting fit next to AD and LeBron. I actually think that eventualy, the Lakers will need to trade him to get a more complementary piece for AD, but for now, his contract provides great value. You could go a couple of ways here. The better way would be to go get a SF that could start and finish games. This would allow to Bron and AD to play the 4 and the 5 respectively, which are their true positions in the modern NBA. However, both would rather play the 3 and 4, at least to begin games, and so it makes sense if you decide to target a 5 man. And there is just the big man, who is looking to make a return to Los Angeles: DeAndre Jordan. Jordan is similar to Collison in that his value is likely going to top out at the MLE. The Spurs seem like a team that might be a natural fit, or the Celtics if they miss out on Kemba Walker and decide to pair DJ with a re-signed Terry Rozier, but I think the Lakers have to be the team to beat. 3 years, $31.5 million (perhaps with an opt-out after year 1 or 2 to let DJ get some more money) seems logical.

$16.55 million – $10 million = 6.55 million + 900k for freed up roster spot = $7.45 million left in cap space.

With that last 7.5 million, the Lakers would want to target a player who can play the swing man spots. there are several options. They could perhaps grab Trevor Ariza for a one year option, or look to bring back Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for this amount. If Avery Bradley is cut by the Grizzlies, he also makes quite a lot of sense, and so does Wesley Matthews. Danny Green and Rodney Hood will likely get offers that take them out of this price range most likely. For the sake of argument, let’s just say they get Ariza. To get Ariza would likely only take about $5 million.

7.45 million dollars left – 5 million dollars = 2.45 million + 900k for freed up roster spot = 3.35 million left in cap space.

They could then use that 3.35 million dollars left to bring back JeVale McGee and give him a small pay increase over the vet minimum offers he likely will get, while providing depth and familiarity.

CAP SPACE DONE!

Finally, the Lakers would have what is known as the cap room exception. This is an exception used by teams that are under the cap to allow them to sign players after they have spent their cap space. It is less than the non-tax payer MLE by almost half, but it is still very useful. The Lakers would want to use this to get some more guard depth. This would give the Lakers the final guy in their primary rotation, and the principal playmaker off the bench, and so there are number of potential guys they could use it on. Cory Joseph and George Hill come to mind, but I anticipate Hill takes the same exception from Milwaukee to run-it back, and I think that the Lakers have a better in-house candidate than Joseph: Rajon Rondo. They can sign Rondo to the cap exception ( 1 year 4.8 million) and he can tag-team in place of and alongside Collison to provide playmaking help, and allow LeBron to continue to move off the ball more of the time. Rondo is familiar with AD from their great run in the playoffs a couple of years ago when they swept the Blazers in the first round. AD reportedly “loved playing with Rondo”, and while his defense has slipped dramatically, he has improved almost as dramtically as a shooter (36 % from 3, which is astounding if you remeber Rondo early in his career) and is still a dynamic playmaker. Bringing him back as a veteran backup, that both LeBron and AD value seems very smart and logical.

And now for filling out the roster … We are now at 9 rotation guys + a 10th in 2nd round pick Talen Horton-Tucker (a kid with some serious upside and physical tools …7 FOOT ONE wingspan for a wing/forward is ABSURD). With the remaining slots you can sign:

Jeff Green – minimum salary

JR Smith – (once cut by Cleveland from his partially guaranteed contract ) minimum salary

Alex Caruso – minimum salary

Kyle Korver – (once cut by Memphis from his partially guaranteed contract) minimum salary

Final Lakers Roster is as such:

Bigs – AD/Jordan/Kuzma/McGee

Forwards – Bron/Green/Horton-Tucker

Wings – Bullock/Ariza/Smith/Korver

Guards – Collison/Rondo/Caruso

That’s a championship roster with shooting, playmaking, post-play and defense permeated throughout. You can mix and match different line-ups and can finally afford to play LeBron around 32-34 minutes a game during the regular season. You can grind it out or play up-tempo. You can use Bron as either a playmaker or finisher. You can feature AD in either the high or low-post. You can run the pick and roll with a number of different iniators and finshers. Provided Frank Vogel brings the necessary finishing touches to polish up the wing defense like he did in Indiana (they have a bunch of good defenders there but no lock-down guy), I can’t see anyone beating this team.

Scenario 2: Long-Term Thinking – Get a max guy, use the cap room exception on a 5th starter and fill the bench with minimum salary guys.

Contrary to what the common thought is, if they went this option, it would prove they are not so much thinking about winning it in 2020 but for the next 2-3 years after that. Doing this would create a massively talented, but very top heavy roster. I’m going to assume they get a PG in this scenario since the 3 most likely gets for them (Kyrie Irving, D’Angelo Russell, and Kemba Walker, not in tht order) are all PGs:

Bigs – AD/Kuzma/McGee (McGee – if he comes at the vet minimum which is only 850k less than the 1st scenario)

Forwards – Bron/Green/Horton-Tucker (unchanged)

Wings – Smith/Korver/Ariza (would use the cap room exception on Ariza instead of Rondo and could only keep Bullock if they got D-Lo … would have to let his cap hold go to get Kemba or Kyrie )

Guards – Star FA/ Caruso

Obviously, who they use the cap room exception on would change if they got, say Kawhi Leondar instead (unlikely). That’s a very thin team that would run the risk of running it’s core down ragged if they cannot get enough solid contributors on vet minimum deals. However, they would be set up beautifully for Summer 2020, when they would have a 1st round pick, a mid-level excpetion and a bi-annual exception at their disposal to add depth. I think this scenario is what the Lakers are shooting for, and if pulled off, could still result in a title Year 1, but also sets them up much better for years 2-4.

Scenario 3: Make-Do – Operate as a capped out team and sign all of their own free agents to 1-2 year deals using their Bird Rights (Reggie Bullock, Mike Muscala), Early-Bird Rights (KCP, Alex Caruso) and Non-Bird-Rights (JeVale McGee, Tyson Chandler, Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson). And use the mid-level excpetion to add another key piece. That leaves you with this roster:

Bigs – AD/Kuzma/McGee/Muscala (DeAndre Jordan with the MLE ?)

Forwards – Bron/Talen Horton-Tucker (Marcus Morris with the MLE ?)

Wings – Bullock/KCP/Stephenson (Danny Green with the MLE?)

Guards – Rondo/Caruso (Darren Collison with the MLE ?)

This would only happen if the Lakers whiffed on all their major FA targets and decided to run it back and try to use the max slot in 2021. While that is not a bad roster, it is an expensive roster, and one they would be mostly locked into for the next two years. In order to sign players to non-bird, or early-bird contracts, you must sign them to two year deals and at 100-120 % and 100-175 % of their previous salaries, respectively. This would lock them into some guys at not terrific contracts for two more seasons, which is not ideal.

I’m very curious to see how Rob Pelinka carries out this off-season. The Lakers sit at the precipice of a dynastic run and these next few weeks will be critical. I for one am excited !

Detroit Pistons 2019 Draft Preview: Wings/Guards

Going to mash these two groups together as there are virtually going to be no realistic options for the Pistons to take at PG at 15. So it’s really just combo guards and wings and a couple of the guys could be classified as either so let’s just smash them all together.

Also the Pistons have confounded things a bit by adding the 30th pick in the Draft. Many of the players that I was just OK with or would be annoyed with them taking at 15 would be great at 30. Such is life ! I’ll withold comments on the merit of that deal to get the 30th pick until after the Draft.

I would be ECSTATIC if we took Nickeil Alexander Walker. He is number #1 on my realistic Big Board. NAW is an excellent shooter, an excellent defender, is long and athletic, and has good playmaking skills. His playmaking skills are so good that some folks think he can develop into a PG. While I’m not entirely certain of that, the Pistons could use help at every single thing I mentioned that NAW brings to the table. He till has considerable upside, and yet can help right away.

I would be pleased if we took Kevin Porter Jr. I know, I know. He’s definitely a boom or bust player. But man, the talent he has is Top 5 level. He can shoot, he can drive, he can finish, he can handle, he has the tools to defend. The only issues with him appear to be mentally and if a coach/front office can get him focused, they may have a baby James Harden on their hand.

I would be OK if we took Romeo Langford or Keldon Johnson. Langford is a lot like Nasir Little. Has star potential if he can tighten up his handle and shot. He is a dynamic shot creator and athlete. The Pistons player development track record, though, is … spotty at best. Keldon is the exact opposite to Romeo. I don’t see a lot of big-time upside with him but he comes with an NBA ready made skill set: He can shoot it and he is a strong defender. He lacks the handle and fluidity to become a stud shot creator, but he will have a long career as a 3 and D wing.

I would be annoyed if we took Tyler Herro or Matisse Thybulle. Here’s the thing … I love Thybulle’s game. He’s going to be an elite, elite, elite defender. If we are being honest, I probably won’t be annoyed if we select him. But I would be kind of annoyed by the fit. While reports are that his shooting is back to where it was a couple of years ago, I don’t know if he will be an even an average shooter on this level, and we cannot keep drafting one dimensional guys. Luke Kennard is a solid offensive player, but he will never be a good defender thanks to his slow feet and T-Rex arms. Bruce Brown is a very good defender, but he just cannot shoot. I want us to be more balanced in the guys we throw out there and not be so situational. Herro is also solid but he’s basically just another Luke. Actually, a little worse. We are covered in the “not just a shooter, but wow he can shoot it” department fam.

Detroit Pistons 2019 Draft Preview: Forwards

This section invariably will be much more brief. The Pistons best player is Blake Griffin, and while his decline is coming sooner than later, he just had one of his best seasons in quite some time. Behind Blake is Thon Maker, a long, high moor project who the Pistons are still trying to figure out. Any player the Pistons would likely select would have to be able to play at the 3 as a power wing, or at the 5 to complement Griffin. There are a few that maybe fit:

*Assuming that Zion Williamson, DeAndre Hunter, Rui Hachimura, and Sekou Doumbouya are not available *

No ecstatic picks here ….. Unless one of those 4 above listed are available and we grab them …

I would be pleased if we selected PJ Washington or Brandon Clarke. Washington brings a well rounded skill set as he can play with his back to the basket, can shoot the 3 (over 40% last season) and has the length and athletic ability to finish at the rim and be a solid defender. He suffers a bit from being “good at everything, great at nothing”, but those can be really solid pieces, especially if they offer the positional flexibility that PJ does. He’s also still fairly young and has the upside to develp further. Clarke meanwhile is just a bundle of athletic ability, that is the ultimate tweener. Offensively, he has limited range, and scored a lot in college at the rim and on short mid range jumpers. I’m fairly confident in the latter translating, but we will see if his 40 inch vertical and soft touch make up for less than ideal length (6’9′ wingspan) with the former . Defensively, he is a menace as he is capable of playing great perimter defense when switched onto a wing or guard, can defend the pick and roll well, and is an elite rim protector. Again if he had another 2 to 3 inches of wingspan, I would have no issue with projecting him to be the same terror as a rim protector in college, but we will have to see. He would pair well with Blake, as Blake’s playmaking is one of his better skills and Clarke can finish those created shots at a higher efficiency rate. He can also assist Blake really well on the defenseive end, both in taking the other team’s better post player and in providing weakside help. His pairing with Drummond though would depend heavily on how well he hits the mid range jumepr at this level.

I would be ok if we selected Nassir Little or KZ Opala. With Little, I see the jaw dropping athleticism, the elite motor, the defensive ability, the ridiculous length (over 7 foot wingspan!). There even is a clear spot for him at the 3. But he reminds me so much of Stanley Johnson. Stanley was not the athlete Nassir is, but had a similar physical profile and was a bit more polished and just as highly regarded on the prep level. He has a lot of potential to become a big time scorer, and is one of the most talented prospects in the Draft, but his outside shooting and handle need to improve quite a bit. He’s the type of guy that the Spurs would turn into an All-Star but the Pistons just don’t have that track record. KZ is similar to Nassir in all of those things. Elite physical tools but there are questions about his shooting and his handle. Unlike Little he shot really well last year (37%) but people are concerned that this may have been a mirage. He also has questionable shot selection. Both would be interesting picks that I would not be mad at, but we probably would have passed on someone more impactful.

I think the Pistons will make a solid selection if they go with any of these picks. I’m not over the moon about any of our realistic prospects, but they are all solid players that could help us in some way. I like Clarke and PJ a bit more because of their fit with Blake and because it is hard to find good modern day bigs.

Detroit Pistons NBA Draft Preview: The Prologue

Mired in mediocrity. That pretty much sums up the current existence of being a Piston fan (a Lion, Tiger, and Red Wing fan too but I digress). Once the excitment of the respective offseason dies down,I’ll wax poetically about how terrible it is to be stuck in that hopeless middle. Too bad to be a contender and too good to get a reasonable shot at acquiring the next wave of superstars. Even within medicority, there is a solid debate between being on the “lower dregs of the playoffs” side of mediocrity, or the “low lottery” side. Adam Silver’s lottery changes have made the latter more palatable, but a team like the Pistons still were in a situation where the choice was debatable but probably immaterial. This is a franchise starved of the playoffs (1 appearance in the last 9 seasons) and a downtown area that could use both the image and economic boost of a weekend of playoff games. Conversely, the fact that it would JUST be that weekend of games, as the Pistons would assuredly be swept for the third consecutive time, by yet another divisional foe (first two at the hands of LeBron James, now at the hands of Giannis) was quite obvious. And while they would have just a 1% chance at the top pick and somewhere between 1-5 % chance of getting a Top 4 pick, a team picking just a slot ahead of where the Pistons would have fallen did the latter, with similar odds. (It must be noted though, that team is the Lakers who have had such an “interesting” run of lottery luck the last 4-5 years, that comparing the Pistons eschewed chances to theirs would be naive at best and disingenous at worst.)

So here the Pistons sit. One spot out of the lottery. The worst of the 16 playoff teams. The Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks have given hope to teams that they do not have to build with high lottery selections, or be major FA destinations. These are false hopes though, as the ignored strength of these teams is embedded in the type of leadership they have in their Front Offices. The Raptors had Bryand Colangelo for 7 seasons, and then replaced him with a star up and coming executive from the Denver Nuggets, named Masai Ujiri. Colangelo’s role should not be ignored as he aquired Lowry as well as the principle pieces used to acquire both Marc Gasol (Jonas Valuncianas) and Kawhi Leonard + Danny Green (Demar DeRozan). Masai actually executed those moves, the latter of which took serious cojones, and through shrewd drafting in the mid-late first round, second round, and UDFA, built the rest of that roster up. Between the two, the Raptors have had over a decade of above average to elite front office work. The same (to a lesser extent) can be same for the Bucks as they furthered the bueprint built by John Hammond (a former Pistons front office guy, from the good days lol) and with an up and coming young front office guy like Jon Hurst, they have built a formidable roster as well. Most teams in the NBA don’t have this. They have guys who are in charge due to paying dues as opposed to having real analytical or scouting or negotiating or team constructing talent. The Pistons have Ed. Ed is not as bad as some other GMs out there …. But his track record is far from awe-inspiring. However, if you would like some young talent in your front office Ed, you can reach me here ! lol

Anywho, the Pistons sit here on the eve of the Draft and are poised to make a selection, that actually may be significant in the future of this roster. In all honesty, the Pistons only have 2 players on their current roster who they should be viewing as a future piece for a championship team: Luke Kennard, and Bruce Brown. Blake only has 2-3 more years of usefulness as a major piece, and Andre’s impact , while underrated, does not match his 28 million dollar salary. Said salary is only going to increase in either the summer of 2020 or 2021 when he is eligible for a 5 year deal worth north of 220 million dollars. No one else on the roster should really even be considered past the next season, and if the Pistons are smart, they should be considering a future without Andre. However …. these are Ed’s Pistons. Maybe he was saying that to mean just for 2019 …. I have my doubts though.

Detroit Pistons 2019 Draft Preview: Centers

*I hate using “positions” as the NBA has grown out of that but it’s easier for this blog’s current purposes to use the archaic labeling systems*

The Pistons have worked out a lot of bigs. My secret hope is that this is because they realize they just cannot be paying Andre Drummond 50 million per season when he is 30, but I have to be realistic. They may or may not have even considered that troubling possiblity, and/or may or may not consider it an issue (I don’t know which of those two would be worse) . It’s a very real possibility they are just looking for a backup C to fill our roster spot that we have a hole at.

I would be ESCTATIC if we took Goga Bitadze. Goga is a rim protector that spaces the court, a basketball unicorn that is very valuable. He is super young at just 19 years old, and to do what he is doing in the second best basketball league in the world (sorry NCAA) is very impressive. He already has a strong frame and great length, and in addition to his unicorn traits, has solid back to the basket moves, and finishing ability around the rim. He does have to improve his rebounding ability and his pick and roll defense, but he shows flashes of both. To me he is a high ceiling, high floor guy and will be able to learn from Andre for a year or two, before taking over for him as we move on.

I would be pleased if we took Bol Bol or Jaxon Hayes. Both are still raw but have a lot of potential. Bol is basically all of Goga’s unicorn traits x 10. Has outstadning potential as a shooter, rim protector and shot creator due to unheard of length and impressive fluidity for a man his size. The issues with him are his health, his frame and his motor. Foot injuries are not to be toyed with, especially for 7 footers. That is something you will have to keep a keen eye on. He’s also going to have to add the 20 lbs he lost while injured + another 20 lbs in order to not get pushed around in the post by the grown men in the NBA .. How will his frame and his foot handle that ? Does he lose some of that agility and put more pressure on his foot, with the added weight, assuming he can put it on. And finally, and most concerning … His motor is really, really poor. You cannot teach work ethic, will or passion at this level, so that improvement will need to come from within. If he solves those weaknesses he is a future HOFer. But those are three MAJOR red flags in addition to some others. At 15, I would be good with us taking that gamble, though. Same for Hayes. He is a rim protector, that has the mobility and agility to be a great pick and roll defender as well. His limitations come from the offensive end, as he is incredibly raw on that end. He essentially only scores on putbacks, dropoffs and lobs. But he’s shown enough touch on his free throws, that he may be able to develop a functional mid range jumper. The upside is that he could become Tyson Chandler with a jumper, which would be huge commodity in a league that is so pick and roll heavy. Of these three though, I think he is the least likely to be available, because of that.

I would be annoyed if we took Bruno Fernando or Mfiondu Kabingele. Neither is a bad player per se. But I don’t think either would be great starters, and would ensure that the Pistons carry out on their desire to build around our current core. They both are safe picks. Fernando is solidly athletic and does enough things well to carve out a niche as a rotational big. Kabingele is a poor man’s Goga, albeit with some troubling passing instincts. It’s not that either player would be a “poor” pick. But i’m almost certain it would mean they passed on one of the aforemntioned 3 bigs, and that would both highly, highly annoy, yet not surpise me at all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nukdnnZnkg&t=170s

Lions State of the Roster – 2019 NFL Draft Outlook (Offense)

Detroit-Lions-Image

Time to take a look at the Lions as they get ready for the 2019 NFL Draft. Bob Quinn and company have done a solid job in 2019 Free Agency (more on that in a later post) and are actually in a solid roster position, where they do not have to abjectly reach for need.  This is not to say that they are not with flaws however. We will start with the more settled side of the ball – Offense.

Key:

Bold = Roster Lock

Italicized = Likely will make 53 man roster

Red = On the bubble

QB

Matthew Stafford 

Connor Cook 

It is debatable whether or not Matthew Stafford is a franchise QB. My take is that it depends on what your definition of that is. Is Stafford a QB capable of putting the Lions on his back and playing mistake-free, high level football?  Yes, in spurts. But not enough to be considered an elite, Top 5 QB, no. However…how many teams with elite Top 5 QBs have won recently outside of Tom Brady ?

Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have not won rings in almost a decade. Matt Ryan has come close, but no cigar. Russell Wilson won, but when he did he was far from the franchise QB he is not, and was definitely more of a game manager (sidenote: game manager has such a negative connotation for QBs in the football community for some reason, but a game manager is just as likely to win a SB as a gunslinger, if not more so).

My view of a franchise QB is not so narrow. To me, DeShaun Watson is a franchise QB. So is Cam Newton. So is Baker Mayfield. These are QBs that you can win a ring with. They don’t have to be top 5, elite QBS, but they can play at a level high enough, that if they have the support, they can win.  This is Stafford. He has never had a good OL, good offensive weapons, and a strong defense at the same time. He may still not. But if Bob Quinn and the Lions front office do their job, he is good enough to lead the Lions to the promised land.

Perhaps more relevant is this … Can we upgrade on Stafford in this 2019 Draft ? I like Kyler Murray and *reluctantly* appreciate the talent of that Buckeye QB. But neither has Stafford’s talent. Ditto for Daniel Jones and Drew Lock. Lions are set here.

Now as for backup QBs, that role is currently held by Connor Cook. I have been mildly surprised by Cook’s career so far, because despite him playing for those losers in East Lansing, I greatly respected his talent. I was happy when he finally graduated, because he had tormented my Wolverines for long enough with his accuracy and had more than enough arm talent for the next level. I thought he would be firmly entrenched as a backup now, and had the chance to develop into a starter. Hopefully he can become that for the Lions.

Draft Outlook: Don’t look for the Lions to add a QB at the draft unless one they really like falls to them on Day 3. Then, whoever they draft will battle it out with Cook to be Stafford”s understudy. Otherwise, they will just grab a QB familiar with Darrell Bevell’s offense and let him and Cook battle.

RB

Kerryon Johnson 

C.J. Anderson 

Theo Riddick 

Zach Zenner 

Nick Bawden (FB) 

The Lions feel like they finally added the running back they have longed for for since Barry Sanders hung up his cleats and I too am excited by Kerryon Johnson’s future.  I’m also happy that the Lions found a good insurance policy/complement to Johnson in CJ Anderson. Anderson serves all three roles the Lions need: a quality complement to Johnson’s running style, a power back to absorb goal line and short yardage body shots so that Johnson does not have to, and a back capable of being the feature back in the event of a Johnson injury. The Lions have not been both this talented and deep at RB in a while.

Theo Riddick is also back to be the 3rd down back/ nominal receiver out of the backfield. Riddick’s elusiveness is still his calling card and he is still one of the better receiving threats out the backfield in the NFL. However, he is italicized because his salary ($4 million) may be a bit expensive for a guy that is best used as a 3rd back, and is more receiver than running back. Still he likely will make the roster. The same goes for Nick Bawden as Bob Quinn drafted the FB in last year’s draft. Quinn obviously has high hopes for Bawden, as drafting a FB is pretty rare in modern day NFL.  In fact one could argue it’s pretty stupid, but that’s a post for another day. Bawden missed all of 2018 with a torn ACL, but like Riddick he will likely make the roster. Quinn drafted him, and Bevell has used the FB historically in his offenses.

The guy in red is Zach Zenner, who always manages to make it back on the Lions due to his toughness and grit as a runner. That and he’s a solid special teamer. This is a deep year for running backs in the draft though, and if one the Lions really like is hanging around in the middle of Day 3, I could see them pulling the trigger. I highly doubt the Lions would keep 5 backs, so at that point it would be a Zenner/Riddick battle which I think would go to the latter. But I have learned not to count Zenner out. Few players that the Lions have had recently can match that guy’s heart.

Draft Outlook: The Lions can basically treat this like QB. They are set,  but if a guy like Karan Higdon or Mike Weber is still available in Round 5, I could see the Lions not being able to pass on adding talented long term depth (remember CJ Anderson only has a 1 year deal).

WR

Kenny Golladay 

Marvin Jones 

Danny Amendola 

Brandon Powell 

TommyLee Lewis

This is the biggest need area on offense to me for the Lions. While they conceivably have their three starters at the position, you have to look deeper. There is a need at slot WR. Sure they have mostly cured it with Danny Amendola. But Amendola’s injury history, while overstated by many, is real. He is banged up quite a bit, but more to the point is that he’s just a stop gap. Lions would do well to grab a young slot to learn from Amendola, and take over next year.

On the outside, Kenny Golladay is a young emerging stud on the otuside. Complementing him is Marvin Jones, the talented deep threat. The Lions still have a need here though. One reason is depth … None of the gentlemen in red provide sufficient depth in my estimation. The other is that you eventually will need to move on from Marvin Jones soon. He probably only has one more year left to perform at his current level before his salary is no longer commensurate with his impact. Athleticism is a major part of his game and both his speed and leaping ability will begin to wane as he approaches 30. More relevant is the money. The Lions will be able to save 6.5 million in cap space if they cut him next offseason. Not saying that this is Marvin’s last year in Honolulu Blue, but I expect the Lions to have some contingency plans in place.

The Lions picked up TommyLee Lewis, who is most known for being the Saints receiver that was PI’d by aptly named Rams nickel corner Nickell  Robey-Coleman in the NFC  Championship game. Lewis is small and fast, just like Brandon Powell. Powell is a guy that the Lions front office seems to like a lot and wants to take that next step forward. Both could make the roster or neither could. I see one of them making it and the other spot being taken by draft pick or possibly two.

Draft Outlook: This draft is historically poor at the top at receiver. Just the massively overrated Ole Miss WR DK Metcalf is getting first round love. However, there are a treasure trove of receivers that will fly off the board in the second and 3rd rounds. I personally like Andy Isabella from UMass and Kelvin Harmon from NC State as really talented and good kids, but I haven’t finished my draft evaluations quite yet.  I think the Lions will grab a receiver on Day 2 and possibly double back for another on Day 3.

TE

Jesse James

Michael Roberts

Logan Thomas

The Lions dropped some good change on Jesse James to be our starting TE and that should end the notion of us taking TJ Hockenson at pick #8. James is a solid two way TE, not elite in either reciving or blocking, but good enough at both. However, depth at this position is weak to say the least. Michael Roberts offers little as a blocker and has not done much as a receiver either. Yours truly was banging the table for George Kittle in 2017, but unfortunately I do not work in the Lions front office. Kittle meanwhile is somehow dominating the NFC West with the patchwork of QBs he had in his first 2 years. The Lions also signed Logan Thomas, an athletic specimen who has not quite mastered his transition from college quarterback to NFL TE. Not exactly a murders row.

Draft Outlook: I could see them trading down into the mid first round and taking Hockenson or Fant. Or perhaps Irv Smith with their 2nd round pick. I have also heard that they had interest in Ole Miss TE Dawson Knox. I have not eyt done film study on him, but allegedly he’s a prospect on the rise that they could nab on Day 2. I expect them to use either a Day 2 or Day 3 pick on a solid TE, and could see said player being #2 on the depth chart by the time September arrives.

OT

Taylor Decker 

Ricky Wagner 

Andrew Donnal 

Tyrell Crosby 

Taylor Decker is a foundational piece and the inconsistent but mostly good Rick Wagner is back to bookend him. The Lions are set and solid here. Behind them is Tyrell Crosby, their very promising young tackle from last year’s draft. He projects to be the swing tackle UNLESS he ends up being our starting RG (more on that in a second). Based on what Quinn has said, I believe the preference would be to keep him at tackle, presumably to take over for Wagner in a year or two when he ages past the effectiveness of his contract. But he played some at RG last season and looked very good at times. If he’s the best guy at G, the Lions may look to the draft for a new developmental swing tackle. Andrew Donnal is just a guy. He has tackle experience and was sought out by the front office in March, so it’s likely he makes the final 53. but I doubt we see him on the active roster very often (barring injury of course).

Draft Outlook: If the Lions go tackle, again it will be a Day 3 guy, and likely a developmental guy.

OG / C

Frank Ragnow 

Graham Glasgow 

Oday Aboushi 

Kenny Wiggins 

Joe Dahl

After receiver, this is the position with the most  immediate need on offense. Last year’s first round pick, Frank Ragnow is solid, and I’m actually expecting him to dominate in 2019, after a year of getting his feet wet. His running mate, Graham Glasgow, is also a solid starter, and have helped solidify that Lions interior. However, there is currently a gaping hole at RG. The current incumbent is probably Kenny Wiggins. Wiggins is a favorite of Lions OL coach Jeff Davidson, going back to his stint as the OL coach for the Chargers. The only issue is that Wiggins is not very good. As a backup G, hje’s overpaid but not awful. You domn’t want him as a starter.  Oday Aboushi meanwhile is a Bevell favorite, going back to his time in Seattle. He’s also not the greatest, but probably better than Wiggins, and with the added value of being able to play tackle if necessary. Finally, there is Joe Dahl, the holdover from Quinn’s first Lions draft, who has not really shown much of anything in his time with the Lions.

Draft Outlook: The Lions will likely add a player at this position, either on Day 2 or early on Day 3, if they choose to add someone. Also keep in mind, that in addition to having an open slot at G, C Graham Glasgow is a 2020 free agent. With Ragnow’s ability to play C, this pick could be looked at as replacement for Glasgow in 2020, if not to fill the hole in 2019.

Overall, I expect the Lions to do the bulk of their draft on offense on Day 3. The Lions have a whopping 6 Day 3 picks. I see them using one of their Day 2 picks on a receiver, but the rest of Day 1 and 2 should be used to help fix their defense. I expect them to certainly target some talented developmental players, as the core foundation of this Lions offense is already in place.

Agree or Disagree ? Please don’t hesitate to leave comments !

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2018 NBA Mock Draft (Lottery)

The 2018 NBA Draft is here ! This means, it’s the end of Mock Draft season. This is a time when a lot of insiders try to read the tea leaves, wade through the smokescreens and prognosticate the upcoming Draft.

It’s important to know the caveats of my mock, as all mock drafts are not created equal … Points to consider:

*Most Mock drafts either are predictions of what they think teams will do (brave), or predictions of what the writer would do (usually with no consequences in later years) … I’m going to do both ! 

*I’m not predicting any trades even though I’m sure there will be several in the Top 14 that completely shake things up.  It’s just too hard to figure out and the wrong one will throw you off.

Okay let’s go !!

1. Phoenix Suns 

What I Think They Will Do: C DeAndre Ayton. This one is as close to a no-brainer as it gets. While the NBA has shifted to a league where perimeter players are at a premium and bigs are devalued, there are some big men who skills destroy the modern narrative. Ayton is one of them. HOF-level talent. PHX has a nasty core in he, Booker and Jackson +  the #16 pick.

What I Would Do: Ditto.

 

2. Sacramento Kings 

What I Think They Will Do:  F Marvin Bagley. I like Bagley a lot, although he’s become a bit of a pariah in the Draft community. People question his jumper, his defense, and his offensive polish. However, I think things can be overblown at times. He will have to work on all 3 things, but I see a guy that is a relentless rebounder, has a high motor, and elite scoring instincts. He should settle in as a 16-20 ppg scorer and double-digit rebounder from Year 1. He also fits the athletic core that Vlade Divac appears to be building in Sacramento with DeAaron Fox and Harry Giles.

What I Would Do: G Luka Doncic. He is the second best player in this Draft. He has a high floor and a pretty high ceiling. At the end of the day, the modern NBA revolves around being able to pass, dribble and shoot. He does those three things better than almost everyone else in the Draft, is 6’8, 18 years old, and just dominated the second-best basketball league in the World. Not rocket science.

 

3. Atlanta Hawks – 

What I Think They Will Do: G Luka Doncic. There has been a lot of discussion about Jaren Jackson and Trae Young with this pick. I think that in the end they go with Doncic. GM Travis Schlenk is rebuilding this team, essentially from the ground up, and Doncic is the best playmaker in the Draft. He also has a star power that is lacking, and he could be the face of the franchise for Atlanta for the next decade.

What I Would Do: Ditto. 

4. Memphis Grizzlies –

What I Think They Will Do: F Michael Porter. The Grizzlies have been trying to move this pick attached to Chandler Parsons, but unfortunately for them, no one wants to touch that contract with a 10 foot pole. Actually, scratch that, fortunately no one does, as I think moving a pick this high,just to accommodate a salary dump, would be incredibly short-sighted. Memphis needs to begin building for the future. Michael Porter is by far the biggest boom or bust player in this Draft.  And not just because of his back and hip injury concerns. There are legitimate questions about his defense, ball handling and playmaking ability. But without a doubt, he is the best pure scorer in this draft, with tremendous jump shot, elite length, and a scorer’s mentality. Memphis needs a player like him.

What I Would Do: Ditto.  

5. Dallas Mavericks –

What I Think They Will Do: C Jaren Jackson Jr. There are quite a few decision makers that believe Jackson will long-term be the best player from this draft. Indeed Jackson is a unicorn. He’s a 40% long distance shooter, with simply fantastic defensive potential. He has the ability to both mirror guards on switches and protect the rim (averaged almost 6 blocks per 40 minutes in college) with elite length. His stats are not as pretty as others because he was poorly used by Tom Izzo, but his defensive upside is through the roof. He needs a bit more work offensively, but even if he just becomes a lob threat, that can knock down open jumpers, his value is tremendous. Nothing in the NBA is rarer than a stretch 5 that can also be a defensive anchor.  Lots of rumblings that the Mavericks will go Mo Bamba with this pick instead, but I think Jackson will be the Mavs pick in the end.

What I Would Do: Ditto. 

6. Orlando Magic – 

What I Think They Will Do: C Mo Bamba. Bamba is probably even more of a unicorn than Jackson is, in terms of measurables. His reach is absurd and he combines that with a deft shooting touch, and high level intelligence, that teams have simply raved about. I don’t think he has quite the same upside as Jackson, as he is not quite as mobile, nor does he have the college production as a shooter that Jackson does, but there are many scouts that think due to his measurables he has as high an upside as even Ayton. A lot of teams think that the Magic will target a point guard, but if you study John Hammond’s draft picks in Milwaukee (John Henson, Greek Freak, Thon Maker) and even here in Orlando (Jonathan Isaac) he loves to take raw, high upside, big men who offer a lot of length. Bamba takes that to a new extreme, so no way Hammond passes on him here.

What I Would Do: C Wendell Carter Jr. This is not a knock to Bamba as I feel the gap between him, Jackson and Carter is infinitesimal. But Carter is one of my favorite players in the Draft, and while not the defensive specimen Bamba is, I believe he is still very good on that end, but offers more offensive value. Orlando truly needs more balance, as they project to become an elite defensive team with the Aaron Gordon+ Jonathan Isaac core, but there are sill question marks about those two offensively.

7. Chicago Bulls – 

What I Think They Will Do: C Wendell Carter Jr. The Bulls have been linked to a lot of players, but I think the best fit for their roster is Wendell Carter Jr. They have been looking for a big man who can fit next to Lauri Markkanen, and if they do not trade up, I expect them to take whichever C of the aforementioned trio falls. Carter is the one that does here, and I think he actually fits best with Markkanen, as he compliments him both defensively AND offensively. A skilled and deft post scorer, who also has an excellent outside jumpshot, and is a high level passer. But unlike lots of other skilled big men, Carter is also a defensive anchor with elite length and decent mobility. I think the Cavaliers secretly covet him, as he is the perfect big to pair with LeBron, but in this scenario, Chicago nabs him before they do.

What I Would Do: Ditto. 

8. Cleveland Cavaliers –

What I Think They Will Do: PG Trae Young. There is a lot of growing steam that they will be using this pick on Shae Gilgeous Alexander, and in many ways it makes sense they would do that. SGA is an excellent perimeter defender, has a functional and improving outside shot, and can both play on and off the ball, as a finisher and a playmaker, important traits if you want to play with LeBron.  But the Cavs did not workout SGA (that we know of), have no idea if LeBron will be back (probably not) and are likely looking to add some star power. Trae Young has huge question marks about his defense and his measurables. But no one denies his elite level of skill. He has an elite handle, an elite jumper, and is probably second only to Doncic as a passer in this draft. Add in the fact that the Cavs had a (not-so) secret workout with Young on Saturday, and that LeBron deemed Young a “very special player” earlier this season … all signs are pointing Young’s direction. Now it is very possible that the Cavaliers leaked the workout news to the media, and are trying to set up a smokescreen to allow SGA or Wendell Carter Jr. to fall to them. But I have very little confidence in the acumen of the Cavs front office, and doubt they would be pulling off such an effective bout of misdirection, based on how they have bungled things in the past.  

What I Would Do: Trade this pick. They need to trade this pick for one of the young stars on the market. I have heard Kawhi Leonard (in a package with Kevin Love-unlikely) and Kemba Walker (good fit) as possible trades, and those are the right moves to make. You have to keep LeBron at all costs. For as much as Trae Young helps offensively, defensively he is a sieve. Walker is a much more balanced player to assist LeBron and might be enough to keep him.

9. New York Knicks – 

What I Think They Will Do: F Kevin Knox. Knox apparently wowed the Knicks in his workout and many in the league believe that if he is still on the board, this is where he will go. I still have questions about his defense but there is no denying, he is a high level shooter with the upside to become more. He and Kristaps Porzingis would form a very intriguing duo together. But that defense … A lot of people think it will get better, as early in his AAU and HS career he was excellent on that end. We will see …

What I Would Do: G Shae Gilgeous-Alexander. Pairs well with Frank Nkitilina but is versatile enough so that if the Knicks ever do get that elusive superstar (like maybe Kyrie Irving… I know unlikely, but Knicks fans can dream) he can play off the ball. In the meantime, he can be their new hope at PG. 

10. Philadelphia 76ers- 

What I Think They Will Do: SF Mikal Bridges. There may not be a better pure fit. Bridges is right there with Carter for my favorite players in the Draft. Elite defensive potential. Dead-eye shooter on high volume of 3s. 7’2″ wingspan.  Yes there are questions about his ability to create his own shot. No, he’s not a future superstar. But paired with Ben Simmons, Dario Saric, and Joel Embiid, he won’t have to be. A whole lot of Klay Thompson to his game. Probably not THAT good as a shooter, but he’s going to be a good one. And he’s a Philly kid, who played at Villanova (and won 2 titles) and whose mother works for the 76ers. It’s so perfect it probably will not happen lol.

What I Would Do: Ditto.

11. Charlotte Hornets – 

What I Think They Will Do:  G Shae Gilgeous-Alexander. This will come down to Colin Sexton vs. SGA and I think SGA will win out. He has greater defensive versatility, playmaking ability and outside shooting range than Sexton, all 3 of which are tenets of the modern NBA. He also fits much better next to Malik Monk, and the Hornets need to be prioritizing their future over their present, as they are stuck on the mediocrity treadmill.

What I Would Do: Package #11 + Kemba to try get into the Top 5. Kemba is about to put the Hornets in a difficult situation. The team is not good enough to justify giving him the supermax, and yet losing him for nothing would be a tough pill to swallow. The time is now to move him and try to get up high enough for a Michael Porter or Luka Doncic. Whether that is moving him to Cleveland and then packaging the picks to get higher or whatever, Kupchak has to make a move.

12-13. Los Angeles Clippers – 

What I Think They Will Do:  F Miles Bridges , C Robert Williams. Jerry West knows what he is doing. And so while everyone is convinced that they will take Colin Sexton, I think he will take these two. Both Bridges and Williams are high level athletes, who will be better pros than college players. Both played out of position in college, which really hampered their effect on the game. Both will thrive with the space the NBA game provides. Bridges has a very well-rounded game, as he has a solid outside shot, and can finish with ease at the rim with touch and power. He’s also a solid defender who can guard both forward positions, and is a hard worker and coachable kid. Williams is a highly athletic and long big man who can run the court, finish on lobs and protect the paint. Neither will likely be studs, but both can be solid NBA players, as West tries to re-build this Clippers team.

What I Would Do: Ditto. 

14. Denver Nuggets – 

What I Think They Will Do: Ok, breaking my own rule here … I think it is highly likely the Nuggets trade this pick (along with Kenneth Faried) . They have a very precarious luxury tax situation, and they would love to get from under Faried’s contract, as it would allow them to sign Nikola Jokic to a max deal this summer, AND re-sign Will Barton, one of the best 6th men in the NBA, (and their 3rd leading scorer) without heading into the luxury tax . Without knowing who they would trade this pick to, it’s difficult to guess who would go here. Could be Lonnie Walker, Jerome Robinson … or …..

What I Would Do:  PG Colin Sexton. I actually think that whoever they do trade this pick to will be targeting Sexton because he is a tremendous value this low in the lottery. Sexton has some flaws to his game but he has an elite ability to attack the basket, and his upside is big-time. That paired with the fact he has a reputation as a tireless worker and competitor is enough for me. He’s shown enough to make me believe he can knock down jumpers in time, and you can’t teach the gifts he has. He would fit really well as the captain of the Nuggets second unit as he can be what Emmanuel Mudiay was supposed to be in a lot of ways. A 3 guard rotation of him, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray could be very interesting and dynamic. Besides, if they want to get rid of Faried, they could always pair him with a lotto protected 2019 first round pick, and they likely would still be able to move him.

Comments ? Let me know ! 

How to KEEP LeBron Vol. 3 – Cavs Edition

The Grousbeck brothers & Stephen Pagliuca. Joseph Lacob. Tilman Fertitta. Peter Holt.

Chances are, you have NO idea who any of those people are without Googling them.

You know who they are ?

They are the (majority) owners of the Boston Celtics, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, and San Antonio Spurs, respectively. 

You don’t know their names because you are not supposed to know their name. You should know their General Managers instead. Danny Ainge, Bob Meyers, Daryl Morey, R.C. Buford. Four of the best GMs/Team Presidents in the NBA.

Dan Gilbert. You know who he is. That’s part of the problem.

Gilbert fired David Grifin, a GM who is in the league of the 4 previously mentioned gentleman, because they did not see eye to eye on a deal to acquire Paul George without a commitment from LeBron James post-2018. Gilbert wanted this commitment because he felt that HIS security was more important than LeBron’s comfort and flexibility. Griffin, like any logical GM knew that the best way to secure LeBron’s comfort, was to give him flexibility while also leveraging as many resources as possible to try to win a title. Gilbert was scared of uncertainty. Griffin embraced it. Because of Gilbert’s fear, he likely will lose LeBron for nothing in about a month’s time.

I think everyone realizes it. The mid-season deals that happened showed how a team that is scared to lose its present, and scared to lose its future, is doomed to lose both. The Cavs could have acquired DeAndre Jordan or Kemba Walker, but were not creative enough or bold enough to make it happen (should have included the Brooklyn pick but put Top 5 protection on it). Knowing they would be facing Kevin Durant, they got rid of their best perimeter defender in Jae Crowder, and added a bunch of youth and long-term salary. They traded Dwayne Wade, still a strong bench player who has ample playoff experience for basically nothing. They made all of these moves without LeBron’s input and then tried to save face by informing him of the moves just before the deadline. They were building for post-LeBron. And so they shall reap.

I don’t know if Koby Altman, Griffin’s successor,  got that direction from Gilbert or is charting his own path on it’s own. But it is a STUPID one. If they lose LeBron, the Cavs will still have too much talent to truly bottom-out and do a full rebuild. But they also will not have enough to compete in the East. They will be mired in mediocrity. Even if they use this 8th pick in the Draft, that they have so feverishly cherished since the extremely stupid decision to trade Kyrie Irving, it’s unlikely they will unearth a superstar.  When you have generational, superstar, GOAT level talent, you do whatever you can to build around them. You will have decades to rebuild after they are gone. But if you catch lightning in a bottle., you keep it there.

If I was Altman … I would call Mitch Kupchak and Chris Wallace up. Those two teams are in very interesting situations, and their situations can help me.

Mitch Kupchack is the new GM of the Charlotte Hornets and well-known for his work in rebuilding the post-Shaq Lakers into the juggernaut of size, length and power that won back-to-back titles at the end of the 2000s. He inherits a team in dire need of a reboot, with a star player headed for unrestricted free agency. They are in a bad spot. If they re-sign Kemba Walker to a max deal, they will be stuck in the mediocrity rut, picking between 10 and 15 every year, praying for a miracle. However, letting their star walk for nothing is also not an option. What to do ?

Similarly, Chris Wallace, a former GM of the Celtics and current mainstay at the helm in Memphis has a conundrum. The directive that is emanating out of Tennessee is that the Grizzlies need to compete next year. This is a ludicrous thought as the Grizz current structure, paying monstrous contracts to two terrific, but support-level players (Mike Conley, and Marc Gasol)  is absurd. They should be rebuilding … But it seems like they are trying their best to position themselves to be a playoff team in 2018-2019. Rumors abound that they are shopping the 4th overall pick in the Draft for either an impact player and/or a way to get out of Chandler Parsons disastrous contract.

Here’s the remedy:

Hornets trade : Kemba Walker + Michael Kidd Gilchrist + Marvin Williams + #11 overall pick 

Hornets get: #4 overall pick + #8 overall pick + Chandler Parsons + Jordan Clarkson

Why for Charlotte: It’s time to start anew in Charlotte. This move allows the Hornets to get two building blocks in a draft that is about 7-8 players deep in true difference makers. Yes they have to eat a couple of unsightly contracts but those will both be off the books by 2020. Adding the two picks they select in this years draft + Malik Monk + whomever they get in 2019 will be a strong core with which to move forward with.

Grizzlies trade: Chandler Parsons + #4 overall pick

Grizzlies get: Michael Kidd Gilchrist + Marvin Williams + #11 overall pick 

Why for Memphis: Memphis wants to compete now and Williams + Kidd-Gilchrist bring you two forwards who can bring a different dimension to the Grizzlies. Williams is a lethal shooter at the 4, and paired with Gasol would allow the Grizzlies to play true 5-out basketball. Kidd-Gilchrist would give them a true lock-down perimeter defender, something they have lacked since Tony Allen’s departure.  They shed Parson’s albatross contract which is right there with Ryan Anderson for worst contract in the NBA. And they still get the 11th pick which they could use to add a talented player like Lonnie Walker or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to their core.

C- Marc Gasol/Deyunta Davis

PF – JaMychal Green/ Marvin Williams

SF – Dillon Brooks/ Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 

SG – Tyreke Evans (re-signed)/ Marshon Brooks

PG – Mike Conley/ Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (11th pick) 

That is a very balanced and deep roster. Definitely not title worthy, but could get to the second round of the layoffs (which for whatever reason appears to be Memphis’ goal … silly but whatever)

Cavs trade: Jordan Clarkson + #8 pick.

Cavs get: Kemba Walker

Why for Cleveland: LeBron James. You made an ill-fated attempt to trade away a secondary creator that helped LeBron and forced him to shoulder the load all season. Kemba is not Kyrie, but he’s definitely a step in the right direction.

Cleveland will also still have the tax-payer MLE. They can target a guy like Avery Bradley, but he likely will get bigger offers. What they could do instead is to use it on a guy like Kenatvious Caldwell-Pope. KCP has a history of being a streaky outside shooter, yet whe he got to LA last season, his outside shot went from streaky to deadly. Between he and JR Smith, you would have an excellent combo of 3 and D-wings to flank next to LeBron.

C- Kevin Love/ Tristan Thompson/ Larry Nance

PF – LeBron / Jeff Green (re-signed) 

SF- Rodney Hood (re-signed)/ Kyle Korver  

SG – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope/ JR Smith  

PG – Kemba Walker/ George Hill 

That’s a very, versatile team. Every reserve listed could play both with and in place of the player listed above them allowing you to go big-or-small, based on the matchup. This would be a team worthy of challenging the Warriors and while they probably would still need a bit more to get the job done, they could make it a good series.

However, unlike the previous two scenarios I outlined … I have ZERO confidence that Koby Altman, Dan Gilbert, and the misfit organization that is the Cleveland Cavaliers would have the creativity, or the vision to make a move like this and secure the present and future. Such a shame.

Comments ? Leave them below !

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How To Get LeBron Vol. 2 – Lakers Edition

In the 31 years between 1980 and 2010, the Los Angeles Lakers played in the NBA Finals 16 times. Out of those 16 attempts, they captured the NBA Championship 10 times. That means in any given year for a little over 3 decades, that season had a 50% chance of ending with the Lakers winning the West and a 33% chance of a Lakers title. That’s a mind-blowing level of success and domination of a major sport. While the Celtics continue to hold a one championship edge over the Lakers, LA most certainly is THE team of the NBA.

Being a professional team based in Los Angeles obviously holds certain advantages, and the Lakers over the years have leveraged those to the max. They lured Wilt Chamberlain away from the Philadelphia Warriors, when he was fresh off of an NBA Championship in 1967. Wilt would lead them to a title in 1972, the franchise’s first since moving to LA.

3 years later, after Wilt and Jerry West had hung it up, the Lakers struck again. This time, it was finessing MVP and NBA Champion Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar) from Milwaukee. A few short years later, Kareem would team up with an outstanding young PG from Lansing, MI and the rest was history.

In the 1990s, the Lakers then set their sights on a young, world-shattering force by the name of Shaquille O’Neal. And once again, they were successful. It took some mind-numbingly-stupid  negotiating from the Magic for it all to come to fruition, but when the dust cleared, the only guy to lead his team past Michael Jordan in the playoffs in the 90s was in Laker purple and gold.

Now here we are in 2018, and the Lakers are once again in position to do what they do, but with possibly the biggest fish yet on the hook: LeBron James.

The Lakers are currently sitting with $62 million in cap space (if they renounce the rights to all free agents) which is almost enough for them to sign two max free agents. To sign LeBron to the max would require a first year starting salary of million $35.3 and it would be $30.3 million in first year salary for Paul George, the free agent most often linked with the Lakers.

The crudest and most simple way for the Lakers to clear the requisite cap space to sign both PG and LeBron to the maximum they can command (outside of re-signing with their own teams) would be to use the stretch  provision on Luol Deng’s contract. This would enable them to spread Deng’s remaining $36.6 million over 5 years. This would drop Deng’s cap number from about $18 million this year (and next) to $7.3 million, which would give the Lakers $72 million in cap space, enough to squeeze LeBron and PG in, with a little bit left over to add a rotation player.

However, that would leave a very misshapen roster. LeBron, PG, Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma and Josh Hart is a very interesting core of players, but it is extraordinarily young, and greatly lacking in size, even by modern NBA standards.

It’s always better to be more creative …. *GM hat, please*

So the first step of this process is that in order to maximize the next 5 years, the team has to understand what is core to its future. Right now there are 4 key, core players to the Lakers nucleus: Hart, Ball, Ingram, and Kuzma. The reality is that as you add two players with the skill of LeBron and Paul George, usage for these other 4 guys will decrease. For players like Kuzma and Hart, as their usage decreases, their efficiency should increase, as they are more or less role players who get their offense created by others. For guys like Ingram and Ball it’s a little bit stickier. There certainly is precedence for making 4 different ball dominant players work, especially with willing passers like Ball and LeBron, and if the Lakers didn’t have the albatross of Deng on the books, it would be worthwhile to watch these guys all together.  However Deng’s contract is just a huge albatross that limits the vision I have for the Lakers roster, and while it may take parting with one of the 4 core players to do so, I think it may be worth it.

Now the popular trade I see out there on the rumor mill is for the Lakers to move Ingram and Deng for Kawhi Leonard. And if that deal is truly available, the Lakers should take it and run. But I’m skeptical that the Spurs will actually pull the trigger on a deal like that, and certainly not between now and mid-July, so I’m going to process this as if that is not an option.

So first step of course is adding Paul George and signing him to the max  … A 4 year deal worth approximately $129 million ($30 million first year salary with 5 % raises). This drops the Lakers cap situation to $32 million in space.

The next move would be inking C DeAndre Jordan to a 4-year $86 million dollar deal. This requires a $20 million first year salary with 5% raises. Now many may think that this is a below market deal for Jordan, but when you scan the market it really is not. Because the NBAPA decided not to smooth out the cap and jumped it massively (which coincidentally is why the Warriors were able to add Kevin Durant to a 73 win team), teams gave out large contracts and acted as if the cap would rise exponentially each year. They were wrong. The cap has been flat the last few years and because of that, very few teams are working with cap space this offseason. Honestly, the only teams that I can see as viable options for Jordan, other than the Lakers are his current team, the Clippers and the Mavericks, the team he last left jilted at the altar. Neither seems likely to me. Joining the Lakers with a deal that gives him a $20+ million dollar salary until he is 32, staying in the city of LA, and being able to compete for a title seems like a good move for his future and his legacy. Honestly, whether the Lakers get LeBron or not, Jordan to the other LA team just seems logical.

Third, with $10 million, the Lakers should sign Avery Bradley to a 3 year 31.5 million dollar deal, with an opt-out after year 2. Now, that deal is a lot less than I think he anticipated getting a year or two ago. But the market, as I mentioned earlier, is very flat. Very few teams have in excess of $10 million in cap space, and those that do are either in a different stage of team formation, or are focused on bigger fish than Bradley. I suspect he will get some mid level exception offers, but the MLE will come in at under $10 million most likely. This deal beats those offers, and once again offers the opportunity to play for a contender.

Finally, with the remaining 4.4 million  (2 million left over from initial cap space + 2.4 million in roster spot cap holds freed up by signing 3 players) the Lakers can sign a veteran big man like Ed Davis or Alex Len to help flesh things out.

Soooo … you may be confused …. The Lakers just used all of their cap space to sign free agents and none of them were LeBron … Yes, that is because when managing the cap, you have to understand how to leverage your assets … And so instead of trying to sign LeBron outright, the better move would be to execute a sign-and trade for someone already on the roster. And so the next move would be to trade Luol Deng + Lonzo Ball to the Cavs for LeBron in a sign-and trade. 

With Deng at a cap value of $18 million and Ball at a cap value of $7.45 million, the Lakers would be sending out $25.5 million in salary.  As a result, LeBron’s maximum first year salary would need to be $31.85 million (trades can only be 125% of the salary you send out  + 100k) so he would be leaving about $3.5 million on the table. But if it was only about money he would just re-sign in CLE anyway. LeBron could ink a 2 year 65 million dollar deal with his customary opt-out option after year 1 to maximize his flexibility and earning power.

While some LA fans, especially LaVar Ball,  would balk at having to give up Lonzo for LeBron, it makes sense as structuring things this way allows the Lakers to make the other transactions discussed and acquire all of these other players (who all have specific reasons for being acquired). Besides that, Ball would be at best the 4th banana in LA, and as a guy that thrives as a playmaker with the ball in his hands, he would not be as productive as most fans expect anyway. To fit around the core of guys that LA would be assembling, you would need a 3 and D guy to occupy the traditional point guard slot, and that is not exactly Lonzo’s game (strong defender but he is an atrocious shooter at this level so far).

For Cleveland, although they would have to eat Deng’s salary, they would be getting a young building block back in Ball for an out-the door LeBron, and he would be able to thrive in a low pressure environment. As I detailed in the Spurs post, Cleveland won’t have cap flexibility until 2020 anyway, so Deng does not really limit them in that respect. Aside from all of that,  I would LOVE to see the interactions between Lavar and Dan Gilbert !

(Now, there is a version of this where the Lakers can keep Ball … If they stretched Deng’s contract  (($10.7 million)), did not sign Bradley or Davis (($14 million)), either convinced Jordan to take $5 million less or signed Derrick Favors for $15 million (($5 million)) and convinced PG to take $2 million less (($2 million)) you could  then try and convince LeBron to come for just under $32 million .. But with a downgrade at C, carrying Deng’s deal for 5 more seasons, no Bradley , and having to convince LeBron AND PG to take pay shaves ?? … Not worth it to keep Lonzo)

Now about putting this roster together … Because if you could not surmise, the construction of this roster was built with defeating the juggernaut that is the Warriors in mind. Here is the 8-man rotation:

 C – Jordan/ Davis 

F – LeBron/ Kuzma  

F – Ingram/ (Kuzma) 

G – George/ Hart  

G – Bradley/(Hart) 

That should be a truly terrifying roster for the Warriors. Jordan at C nullifies the “Hamptons Lineup” because you cannot get away with Draymond Green trying to keep Jordan off the glass. In addition to that, Jordan’s presence as a rim protector allows the other defenders to be more aggressive and truly clamp down on the perimeter. Jordan will thrive playing off of LeBron as well as he has similar passing chops to Jordan’s old running mate CP3. If LeBron could make Tristan Thompson look good as a pick and roll lob finisher, imagine him with DJ.

Playing LeBron as a point PF allows him to defend Draymond on defense, a player he can help off of as opposed to wasting energy guarding the Warriors better scorers. Offensively, he has a great mix in Ingram and George, of guys that can create their own shot without LeBron but are also dead eye shooters who can create space for LeBron’s drives and knock down open jumpers when he gets them those shots. Bradley is also a solid shooter, who excels at moving without the ball off of screens and and would do well playing off of LeBron.

With Ingram and George matching up with Klay Thompson and Durant, they would certainly make those guys work on both ends. And Bradley is the PERFECT defender for a guy like Steph Curry. He has elite quickness,  a 6″11 wingspan and a bulldog mentality to really harass Steph.

Off the bench, Kuzma and Hart are excellent role players who are young and can mix and match well with the starters. Hart is a lot like Bradley and can play both guard spots and the wing, with strong defense and excellent long-range shooting. Kuzma can be asmall ball five and can play alongside/rest both Ingram and LeBron. And Ed Davis is an excellent back-up C that is another tremendous low post presence defensively and on the glass, but can also move better than the typical back-up C. He may potentially get a bigger deal than what the Lakers are offering, and if so they could grab Len, who is better offensively, but not as good on the defensive end. That’s a strong 8 man rotation, and the Lakers could just fill in the loose ends with veterans chasing rings or low-cost young players looking for a chance ala the Warriors.

If the Lakers follow my guidelines … They will be 2019 NBA Champions. For the record, I think LA is going to be the final destination for LeBron, but they may not follow this exact blueprint.  …. They should though lol … Let me know what you think !

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